Regional Outlook — TAS1: Friday 11 September 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $89.75/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, tracking just above the $85/MWh band that has held for most of the evening peak. Demand reads 1,112 MW. The past 24 hours show a wide range: prices spiked to $158.29/MWh during Thursday evening's peak (05:00 AEST equivalent) before collapsing through negative territory overnight, bottoming near -$15/MWh in the early hours as demand fell below 900 MW. That overnight price collapse reflects Tasmania's typical low-demand, high-hydro-availability pattern rather than any supply stress.
Generation mix is running 1,059.6 MW hydro, 124.98 MW gas OCGT, and 31.1 MW wind, with hydro dominating supply at roughly 87% of the current 1,216 MW output. Renewable penetration sits at 89.72%, among the highest of any NEM region, driven almost entirely by hydro with a modest wind contribution. Carbon intensity reads 0.0668 tCO2/MWh, down from a peak of 0.1791 tCO2/MWh recorded around 03:55 AEST when overnight gas-fired generation carried a larger share of a smaller total load. Intensity has been trending down steadily since the 04:30 AEST trough in renewable output, consistent with hydro ramping back up through the morning.
Predispatch forecasts point to firmness through the morning, holding near $85-91/MWh into midday before easing to $75/MWh by midday and then falling sharply from early afternoon — forecast prices drop to single digits by 14:30 AEST and turn negative by 16:00-18:00 AEST as demand tapers into the evening. Overnight tonight into Saturday, forecasts show sustained negative pricing from 00:00 through 05:00 AEST, with troughs near -$42/MWh around 03:00-04:30 AEST. Identified low-cost load windows align with this: 01:00-06:00 AEST offers average prices from -$13 to -$41/MWh, each flagged as low-risk with $105-133/MWh savings versus peak — a strong window for flexible load-shifting or battery charging.
No active market notices directly affect TAS1 today. Current AEMO notices concern SA voltage-control interventions (directions to AGL's Torrens Island units), NSW-VIC settlement residue constraints, and a VIC contingency reclassification — none of which carry direct implications for Tasmanian dispatch or Basslink flows. Weather today shows cool conditions (4.2°C current, rising to a 17.3°C max), light wind (7.7 km/h, wind potential 0.7%) and low cloud cover, suggesting hydro will continue to carry the bulk of generation with only marginal wind contribution through the day.