Regional Outlook — TAS1: Monday 14 September 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $68.31/MWh at 20:30 AEST, tracking above the past 24 hours' broader range which has swung from -$58.91/MWh (04:45 this morning) to $213.06/MWh (a brief 13:15 spike). Demand currently reads 985 MW, up from a midday trough near 780 MW. Today's price path has been volatile but low on average — sub-$15/MWh overnight through the 04:00-05:45 window as hydro and wind output outpaced demand, before climbing through the evening peak.
Generation mix at the latest interval shows hydro dominant at 773.6 MW, wind contributing 420.2 MW, and gas (OCGT) filling the balance at 124.6 MW — total scheduled generation around 1,318 MW against 985 MW of demand, with the surplus likely exporting via Basslink. Renewable penetration sits at 90.55%, keeping carbon intensity low at 0.0614 tCO2/MWh, near the best levels seen in the past 24 hours (range 0.054-0.096 tCO2/MWh). This aligns with a strong hydro-wind combination typical for Tasmania's mid-September profile.
Predispatch forecasts point to a further price fall overnight, with several intervals between 21:00 tonight and 05:00 tomorrow forecast negative — as low as -$50.59/MWh around 03:00 AEST on 15 September, consistent with high wind and hydro availability against soft overnight demand. Prices are then forecast to recover sharply from 08:00 tomorrow, climbing through $60-80/MWh territory and peaking near $88/MWh around 13:00-13:30 AEST as morning demand ramps up. Traders should note the identified low-price windows overnight (00:30-05:30 AEST) offer the strongest load-shifting value, with savings versus peak exceeding $100/MWh in several cases.
No Tasmania-specific market notices are active today — recent AEMO interventions and directions (voltage control, negative settlement residues) are concentrated in the SA region and do not directly affect TAS1 dispatch or pricing. The Basslink control issue flagged on 11 September has been resolved. Cool conditions persist (6.7°C, light wind at 11.8 km/h), with wind potential improving over the coming week, particularly from 18 September (15.8 avg wind potential), suggesting continued strong renewable output and downward price pressure into the following week.