Regional Outlook — TAS1: Tuesday 15 September 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $94.07/MWh at 06:30 AEST, tracking near the top of a volatile 24-hour band that swung from -$19.58/MWh overnight to $102.87/MWh in the last hour of trade. Demand has climbed to 1,143 MW, up from a low near 795 MW around 3am AEDT, as the region rides its typical overnight-trough, morning-ramp pattern. The current price is roughly double the past 24-hour average, which sat depressed by extended negative pricing between 8pm and 6am when hydro and wind output outstripped demand.
Generation is running at 1,050 MW hydro and 304 MW wind, with zero gas OCGT dispatched — Tasmania is drawing entirely from renewable sources this interval. Carbon intensity reads 0 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 100%, consistent with a run of sub-0.01 tCO2/MWh readings since 10:30am yesterday. This reflects Tasmania's structural position as a hydro-dominant region rather than any unusual operating condition — carbon intensity has sat at or near zero for over 30 consecutive hours per the carbon history.
Predispatch forecasts point to a sharp price escalation through the morning: $81.92/MWh by 7:30am, breaking above $100/MWh from 8am, and peaking near $122.87/MWh around 10:30am-11:00am before easing back toward $88-95/MWh through the afternoon and evening. This trajectory reflects tightening demand against a hydro/wind supply base without gas backup currently online — traders should note the pattern of intraday price spikes (5-minute swings of $20-40/MWh) that have characterised the past 24 hours, indicating thin marginal supply at the margin despite ample average generation.
Two contingency reclassifications affected TAS1 transmission in the past 24 hours: the Farrell-Reece 220kV double circuit was reclassified as credible due to lightning risk before being cancelled at 11:49am, and the Gordon-Chapel St 220kV double circuit followed the same pattern, cancelled at 6:04pm. Both events were lightning-related and resolved without lasting network impact. No active load-shedding, intervention, or non-conformance notices apply to Tasmania today; the only live regional market interventions are concentrated in SA around voltage control directions to Torrens Island.