Regional Outlook — TAS1: Sunday 13 September 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $48.65/MWh at 20:30 AEST, holding within the $30-60/MWh band that's defined the region since prices climbed out of negative territory around 06:00 this morning. The overnight period saw sustained negative pricing between -$5 and -$15/MWh from midnight through to 06:00, a function of low demand (sub-1,000 MW) meeting high minimum hydro and wind output. Demand has since climbed to 1,035 MW, tracking a typical Monday evening ramp.
Generation mix is currently hydro-dominant at 744.7 MW, supplying the bulk of the region's output, with wind contributing 233.5 MW and gas OCGT adding 125.4 MW to cover the evening peak. This mix puts renewable penetration at 88.64% and carbon intensity at 0.0739 tCO2/MWh — both consistent with Tasmania's typical profile and near the best levels recorded over the past 24 hours. Intensity troughed near 0.06 tCO2/MWh around midday when hydro and wind covered over 90% of demand, and has ticked up modestly into the evening as gas peaking plant fills the gap during the demand ramp.
Predispatch forecasts point to prices holding in the $53-56/MWh range through 21:00-22:30 AEST tonight, before easing sharply overnight — forecast prices drop to $10-20/MWh from 23:00 through to 06:00 tomorrow, mirroring last night's pattern of negative-to-low pricing during minimum demand hours. A sharp reversal is forecast from 07:00 tomorrow, with prices jumping to $76-81/MWh through the morning block (07:00-10:00) as demand ramps and gas generation is called on ahead of solar contribution, which remains negligible in Tasmania. Prices are forecast to ease back to the $30-35/MWh range by mid-afternoon tomorrow.
No Tasmania-specific market notices are active today — the current notice board is dominated by South Australia voltage control directions and minimum system load advisories, none of which affect TAS1 directly. The Basslink control issue flagged on 11 September has been resolved, with interconnector controls confirmed available since that afternoon, so Tasmania's link to the mainland market is operating normally. Traders should note the low-price windows between 01:00-06:30 AEST tomorrow, forecast at $9-11/MWh, as the most attractive load-shifting opportunity in the current outlook.