Regional Outlook — QLD1: Friday 18 September 2026
Queensland's spot price sits at $64.83/MWh at 06:30 AEST, down from the $85-93/MWh band that held through yesterday evening's peak but well above the negative pricing seen overnight. Demand reads 5,496 MW, tracking down from the 7,000+ MW mid-morning peak seen yesterday. Overnight prices collapsed into negative territory for over five hours (as low as -$7.01/MWh around 04:30-05:00 AEST) as demand troughed near 3,650 MW, before rebounding sharply once the morning demand ramp kicked in around 05:55 AEST.
The current generation mix is dominated by black coal at 4,777.69 MW, with wind contributing 354.37 MW, solar 211.42 MW, hydro 162.68 MW, gas OCGT 101.08 MW, and batteries 32.14 MW. Renewable penetration sits at 13.49%, well below the overnight peak of over 54% recorded around 22:25 AEST when demand was low and wind/solar met a much larger share of a smaller load. Carbon intensity has correspondingly risen to 0.7572 tCO2/MWh, up from an overnight low of 0.3958 tCO2/MWh — the pattern reflects coal's relatively fixed output against overnight demand troughs, then rising demand met increasingly by thermal generation as solar output is still ramping at this hour.
Predispatch forecasts show prices easing toward $61.15/MWh by 17:00 AEST before climbing to a sustained $84-87/MWh band from 18:00 AEST through the afternoon into early evening, consistent with yesterday's pricing pattern. Overnight tonight, forecasts point to another deep negative-price window, with troughs near -$29.79/MWh around 14:30 AEST tomorrow (overnight low-demand period) and -$22.10/MWh near 11:00 AEST — reinforcing tonight's low-demand, high-renewable dynamic. Today's weather outlook shows minimal wind potential (0.7%) and moderate solar potential (41.6%) under mostly clear skies (4% cloud cover), with a top of 29.8°C, suggesting afternoon air-conditioning load could firm demand and support the forecast price uplift into the evening peak.
No active market notices directly affect QLD1 today. Relevant AEMO notices are concentrated in SA1 (ongoing voltage-related intervention directions to Torrens Island and a forecast Minimum System Load MSL1 condition for 19 September) and TAS1 (lightning-related contingency reclassifications, now cancelled). One QLD-specific general notice confirms a network augmentation was commissioned at 18:46 AEST yesterday — new 275kV lines linking Broadsound, Glencoe and Nebo substations — which improves transfer capability but has no immediate pricing implications noted.