Regional Outlook — QLD1: Wednesday 16 September 2026
Queensland spot price sits at $85.71/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, easing back from an overnight peak of $120.30/MWh recorded around 18:15 AEST yesterday evening. The region has swung through a wide band over the past 24 hours — negative pricing as low as -$6.25/MWh persisted through the early hours (00:00-06:00 AEST) as demand troughed near 4,000 MW, before the morning ramp pushed prices back above $100/MWh as demand climbed to a daily peak around 7,540 MW mid-morning. Current demand reads 6,249 MW.
Generation mix at the last interval shows black coal dominant at 5,179 MW, supplying the bulk of output. Wind contributes 1,186 MW, hydro 254 MW, solar 245 MW (limited by the early-morning timestamp), battery output at 175 MW, and gas (OCGT) rounding out the mix at 99 MW. Renewable penetration sits at 26.05%, well down from the overnight peak of over 52% recorded around 04:00 AEST when wind and low demand combined to lift renewables' share. Carbon intensity currently reads 0.6476 tCO2/MWh, tracking near the top of its 24-hour range — intensity bottomed near 0.415 tCO2/MWh overnight and has climbed steadily as coal generation firmed to meet the morning demand ramp.
Predispatch forecasts point to prices holding in the $80-110/MWh band through today's business hours, with a peak forecast of $107.69/MWh around 09:30 AEST and sustained levels above $99/MWh into early afternoon before easing toward $78-85/MWh by late afternoon and evening. Overnight tonight, forecasts show prices reverting to negative territory again, with predispatch estimating -$6 to -$7/MWh from 23:00 AEST through to the 06:00 AEST ramp tomorrow — consistent with the low-demand, high-renewable overnight pattern seen in the current cycle. Identified load-shifting windows overnight offer savings around $113-114/MWh versus today's peak pricing.
No active market notices specific to QLD1 are affecting operations today beyond routine price confirmation notices. AEMO's current intervention activity is concentrated in SA (voltage-related directions) and does not extend to Queensland. Weather today is mild — 12.8-21.9°C with 37% average cloud cover and modest solar potential (13.1%), suggesting renewable output will remain moderate rather than exceptional through the day.