Regional Outlook — QLD1: Sunday 13 September 2026
Queensland's spot price sits at $54.50/MWh at 20:30 AEST, down from a $76.79/MWh morning peak but well above the negative pricing that dominated overnight trade (prices fell as low as -$12.60/MWh between 03:00 and 04:30 AEST). Demand currently reads 6,156 MW, tracking near the day's upper range after climbing steadily from an overnight trough of 3,122 MW around 03:00 AEST. The intraday pattern is typical for the shoulder season: negative prices through the low-demand overnight window as wind generation and minimum thermal output outpaced load, followed by a sharp ramp to the $70-76/MWh band through the 06:00-11:00 AEST morning peak as solar was yet to ramp and demand climbed.
Generation mix at the current interval is led by black coal at 4,296 MW, with wind contributing 1,558 MW, battery storage at 275 MW, solar at 241 MW, and gas (OCGT) at 101 MW. Hydro sits at zero. Renewable penetration reads 32.05%, down from a session high near 47.6% at 06:00 AEST when wind output was stronger and demand lower. Carbon intensity currently stands at 0.5944 tCO2/MWh, having climbed from an overnight low of 0.4572 tCO2/MWh — the intensity curve mirrors the inverse of renewable share, peaking near 0.66 tCO2/MWh during the 13:00-15:00 AEST window when solar contribution was constrained and coal carried a larger share of load.
Predispatch forecasts point to a return to negative pricing overnight, with forecast RRP troughing around -$7.79/MWh near 05:00-05:30 AEST tomorrow (14 September) before a steep rally to $72.50/MWh by 07:00 AEST and a peak forecast of $93.43/MWh around 08:30 AEST. Prices are expected to hold in the high $70s to low $90s through the morning block before easing to the low $70s into the afternoon and settling near $63.73/MWh by 18:00 AEST. This overnight-negative, morning-peak pattern reinforces the load-shifting opportunity flagged in today's load windows, with five separate low-price blocks between 23:00 AEST tonight and 05:00 AEST tomorrow offering savings near $100/MWh versus peak pricing for flexible load.
No active market notices are specific to Queensland today beyond a non-conformance declaration against unit MPP_1 on 11 September (-18 MW, since resolved). The bulk of current AEMO intervention activity — including Torrens Island direction orders and minimum system load advisories — is concentrated in the SA region and does not directly affect QLD1 dispatch conditions.