Regional Outlook — QLD1: Thursday 10 September 2026
Queensland's spot price sits at $87.73/MWh as of 6:30am AEST, tracking above the overnight trough of near-zero prints (as low as $0.01/MWh around 1:20pm yesterday) but below yesterday evening's peak of $102.80/MWh. Demand is at 6,251 MW, climbing off the overnight low near 4,380 MW as the morning ramp builds. The past 24 hours show a classic diurnal pattern: prices collapsed to $22-30/MWh range through the 6-7am window yesterday on strong wind and solar output, then spiked to the $90-105/MWh band during the evening peak (7-9pm) as demand hit 7,400+ MW.
Generation mix at the current interval shows black coal supplying 5,019 MW, the dominant source, followed by wind at 1,194 MW and battery output at 847 MW. Gas OCGT is contributing a modest 123 MW, hydro 28 MW, and solar just 101 MW given the early morning timing. Total renewable penetration reads 29.68%, down from an overnight peak above 44% reached around 11pm-midnight when wind generation was stronger and demand lower. Carbon intensity currently sits at 0.6149 tCO2/MWh, up from an overnight low of 0.483 tCO2/MWh — intensity and price are moving inversely to renewable share through the morning ramp, consistent with coal and gas picking up load as wind eases and solar hasn't yet reached full output.
Predispatch forecasts point to a steep price climb through the day. After a brief easing to $22-40/MWh range across 7-9am AEST (overnight low), prices are forecast to lift sharply from 5pm AEST (54.73/MWh) through to a peak near $112.58/MWh around 10:30pm AEST, with sustained levels above $100/MWh from roughly 6pm through midnight. This trajectory reflects tightening evening demand against reduced solar availability. Weather outlook supports moderate solar potential today (11.6% average) with light wind (2.4%), consistent with the observed mix — traders should note the low wind/solar potential over the coming week (dropping to 2.3% solar potential by 17 September) as a signal for sustained coal and gas reliance during that window.
No active market notices directly affect QLD1 today. Current notices are concentrated in SA1 (voltage-related directions to AGL's Torrens Island units, now resolved) and VIC1/NSW1 (negative settlement residue constraints on interconnectors, cycling on and off through the day — the NSW-VIC constraint ceased at 5:20pm yesterday). None of these carry direct implications for Queensland dispatch or pricing today, though traders should monitor for any flow-on interconnector effects via NSW-QLD given the broader NEM residue activity.