Regional Outlook — QLD1: Sunday 6 September 2026
Queensland spot price sits at $80.93/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with demand at 6,061 MW. The region has traded in a wide band overnight, swinging from a low of -$35/MWh around 03:15-03:20 AEST during minimum demand (sub-3,300 MW) through to a morning peak near $99.69/MWh at 08:00 AEST as demand ramped through 7,000-7,300 MW. Prices have since eased back through the middle of the day, dipping to the low $60s/MWh in the early afternoon before climbing again into the evening peak.
Generation mix at the latest interval (20:25 AEST) is led by black coal at 5,106.5 MW, followed by wind at 936.89 MW, battery output at 453.13 MW, gas (OCGT) at 99.09 MW, hydro at 30.24 MW, and solar at 33.39 MW — solar output is minimal given the late hour. Renewable penetration sits at 21.83%, well down from the overnight peak above 46% recorded around 22:00-23:00 AEST when wind generation was strongest and demand was lowest. Carbon intensity currently reads 0.6845 tCO2/MWh, tracking near the middle of today's range, which has spanned from 0.459 tCO2/MWh overnight (highest renewable share) to 0.733 tCO2/MWh during the afternoon peak when coal dominated the mix.
Predispatch forecasts point to a further pullback overnight into negative territory, with prices forecast at -$1.92/MWh to -$4.09/MWh across the 21:00-05:00 AEST window as demand falls and minimum load conditions return. The market then re-prices sharply from 06:30 AEST as morning demand builds, with forecasts showing $39.75/MWh at 06:30 climbing to $71.68/MWh by 07:00 and a forecast peak of $115.65/MWh around 09:30 AEST — the strongest price point in the current forecast horizon. Prices are expected to ease back to the $70-100/MWh range through the afternoon and settle near $72.50/MWh into the evening. Weather conditions support this pattern: solar potential today averages just 22.4%, wind potential is negligible at 0.6%, and cloud cover sits low at 13%, limiting renewable contribution through daylight hours.
No QLD-specific market notices are active today. Recent AEMO notices affecting the broader NEM relate to SA region intervention events (voltage-related, since cancelled), non-conformance declarations in SA and VIC, and several contingency reclassifications in TAS1, VIC1 and NSW1 tied to lightning activity over the weekend — none of these carry direct implications for Queensland dispatch or pricing today. Traders should note the five identified low-price windows overnight and pre-dawn (00:00-01:00, 01:00-02:00, 03:00-04:00, 05:30-06:30 AEST), each offering savings near $117-119/MWh versus peak for flexible load, ahead of the sharp morning price ramp.