Regional Outlook — QLD1: Friday 4 September 2026
Queensland's spot price sits at $55.26/MWh at 6:35am AEST, well off yesterday evening's volatility that saw prices spike to $256.86/MWh before crashing through negative territory overnight, with troughs near -$18/MWh persisting from roughly 10pm through to 4am. Demand has climbed from an overnight low near 3,822 MW to 5,427 MW currently, tracking the typical Saturday morning ramp. Prices have been broadly stable through the 8am-8pm window yesterday, oscillating in the $55-82/MWh band as demand peaked around 7,290 MW mid-morning.
The generation mix at 6:00am shows black coal dominating supply at 4,706 MW, comfortably the largest contributor, followed by wind at 603 MW and gas OCGT at 97 MW. Hydro is contributing 28 MW and battery output sits at just 1.7 MW, with solar negligible at this pre-dawn hour. Renewable penetration reads 11.65% for the latest interval, down sharply from the 47-50% range achieved overnight when wind generation and low demand combined to push renewables' share higher. Carbon intensity has correspondingly risen to 0.7734 tCO2/MWh, up from overnight lows near 0.44 tCO2/MWh, reflecting coal's larger share of the mix as solar has yet to ramp and demand climbs.
Predispatch forecasts point to prices staying negative overnight into Saturday, with troughs of -$18.36/MWh forecast around 3pm UTC (1am AEST Sunday) as low demand and renewable output return. Prices are expected to firm through Saturday's morning ramp, reaching $78-80/MWh by mid-morning (7:30am-12:30pm AEST window) before easing back to the mid-$50s/MWh by late afternoon and into the $42-43/MWh range by early evening. Today's weather outlook shows solar potential improving to 31% average with cloud cover dropping to 14%, a marked improvement on this morning's fully overcast 100% cloud cover, which should support stronger solar contribution and lower carbon intensity through the day.
No Queensland-specific market notices are currently active. Relevant NEM-wide notices include an active non-conformance declaration for a Victorian wind farm unit (GPWFWST1) and ongoing SA region voltage-related intervention activity, neither of which directly affects Queensland dispatch. AEMO's prior credible contingency reclassification for the Yallourn-Rowville lines in VIC1 was cancelled this morning following the end of lightning activity, with no bearing on Queensland network security.