Regional Outlook — QLD1: Tuesday 1 September 2026
Queensland spot price sits at $79.73/MWh as at 06:25 AEST, tracking near the top of its overnight range after a volatile session that saw prices swing from -$9.60/MWh in the pre-dawn trough to a peak above $84/MWh around 18:00-18:20 yesterday evening. Demand has climbed to 6,449 MW, up from the sub-4,300 MW overnight minimum, consistent with the morning ramp. The 24-hour trend shows a classic overnight-trough, morning-ramp pattern — prices were negative to near-zero from 00:00-05:30 AEST as demand fell below 4,500 MW, then jumped sharply once demand crossed 6,000 MW after 06:00.
Generation mix at the current interval is dominated by black coal at 5,454 MW, comfortably the largest source. Wind is contributing 631 MW and battery storage 664 MW, with gas OCGT at 97 MW, hydro at 33 MW, and solar minimal at 50 MW given early-morning conditions and 96% cloud cover locally. Renewable penetration sits at 19.9%, having fallen from an overnight peak of 47.3% around 23:00 as demand rose and coal output increased to meet the ramp. Carbon intensity is 0.7016 tCO2/MWh, up from an overnight low of 0.46 tCO2/MWh — intensity and renewable share are moving inversely as expected through this demand ramp.
Predispatch signals a firmer session ahead: forecast prices climb to $71.68/MWh by 07:00 AEST, then spike sharply to $109.75/MWh by 08:00 and stay elevated through the morning, with $107.73/MWh forecast at 10:30. Prices are expected to ease into the afternoon, settling in the $62-72/MWh band from midday through to 18:00. Overnight tonight is forecast to revisit negative territory, with predispatch showing prices as low as -$9.60/MWh between 00:00 and 05:00 AEST tomorrow — a load-shifting window traders should note, offering roughly $118-119/MWh savings versus today's peak for flexible load.
On notices, QLD-specific items are administrative rather than market-moving: a Constraints update to North Queensland system strength equations (implemented 27 August) and a resolved contingency reclassification on the Mudgeeraba-Terranora 110kV lines due to lightning, now reverted to non-credible. AEMO's active intervention and MSL activity remains concentrated in SA, with a foreseeable intervention flagged for SA voltage support from 10:30 AEST today — no direct QLD impact expected. Scheduled MarketNet maintenance affecting QLD datacentre VPN termination points is planned for 4 September (10:00-17:00 AEST), worth flagging to IT/market participants ahead of time.