Regional Outlook — QLD1: Friday 28 August 2026
Queensland spot sits at $98.68/MWh at 06:30 AEST, tracking close to the overnight/morning average as demand ramps to 5,820 MW. Prices swung from negative territory (-$7.36/MWh) through the 13:00-15:00 AEST overnight trough — typical of low-demand, high-renewable conditions — before climbing sharply from 06:00 AEST as morning demand built past 7,000 MW, peaking near $119/MWh at 07:20 AEST before easing back into the high-$70s to low-$100s range through the day.
Generation mix at the current interval is dominated by black coal at 5,461 MW, followed by wind at 851 MW, battery storage at 198 MW, gas (OCGT) at 96 MW, hydro at 30 MW, and solar at just 16 MW — reflecting the evening timing with solar output near zero. Renewable penetration sits at 16.46%, down from a peak above 49% around 23:00-23:30 AEST last night when wind and overnight demand conditions favoured higher renewable contribution. Carbon intensity is currently 0.7318 tCO2/MWh, elevated from the overnight low of 0.4391 tCO2/MWh and consistent with coal's higher share of the current mix.
Predispatch forecasts show prices retreating overnight, with negative pricing expected from 00:30 AEST through to around 05:30 AEST (as low as -$6.38/MWh at 05:00 AEST) as demand troughs, before a strong ramp back to $92-100/MWh through the 08:00-10:30 AEST window tomorrow as morning demand returns. Prices then ease gradually across the day, settling in the $63-80/MWh band by late afternoon. Low-cost overnight windows are flagged around 00:30-01:30, 01:30-02:30, 04:00-05:00 and 05:00-06:00 AEST, each offering $104-109/MWh savings versus peak for flexible load.
On notices, a non-conformance event was declared for unit GUSF1 in QLD1 (37 MW, 14:50-15:15 AEST yesterday), now resolved. System strength constraint equations for North Queensland were updated effective 27 August, replacing existing Q-NIL equation IDs with new Q_STR_NIL identifiers to reflect Powerlink's latest transfer limit advice. No active QLD-specific market interventions or MSL conditions are in effect; current SA-region MSL and voltage notices don't affect Queensland dispatch. Weather outlook shows mild conditions (max 22°C tomorrow) with low wind potential (1.3) and moderate solar potential (10.8) — supportive of the current fuel mix pattern persisting into next week.