Regional Outlook — QLD1: Wednesday 26 August 2026
Queensland's spot price sits at $289.69/MWh as at 20:30 AEST, having climbed sharply through the evening peak from a $105-130/MWh band during the afternoon shoulder. The region traded negative overnight, bottoming near -$6/MWh between 05:00 and 05:35 AEST as minimum demand and renewable output overlapped, before demand ramped from 4,543 MW to a current 6,693 MW alongside the evening peak. The last hour has seen prices spike from $115/MWh at 19:05 to $289.69/MWh by 20:30, tracking demand growth through the typical 6-9pm peak.
Generation mix at the current interval is dominated by black coal at 5,689 MW, with wind contributing 682 MW, battery storage 366 MW, hydro 232 MW, gas OCGT 97 MW, and solar a negligible 15 MW as the sun has set. Renewable penetration sits at 18.29%, down from an overnight high above 47% around 04:00-04:30 AEST when wind and low demand combined favourably. Carbon intensity has correspondingly risen to 0.7159 tCO2/MWh, up from an overnight low of 0.4535 tCO2/MWh, tracking the inverse relationship between renewable share and emissions intensity typical of QLD's diurnal pattern.
Predispatch forecasts show prices easing to $206/MWh by 21:00 before falling sharply overnight — $54.75/MWh by 22:00, single digits by 23:00, and near-zero through the 02:00-04:30 AEST window, consistent with low overnight demand. The forecast trajectory then reverses through tomorrow's morning peak, with predispatch showing $174/MWh at 09:00 AEST and volatility persisting into the $121-164/MWh range through midday and early afternoon on 27 August, before easing to $84-90/MWh by mid-afternoon. Tomorrow's weather outlook shows 22.6°C maximum with 20% cloud cover and modest solar potential (16.2%), suggesting moderate rooftop PV contribution during daylight hours.
Two active AEMO notices are specific to QLD1: a contingency reclassification for the Mudgeeraba-Terranora 110kV lines was declared due to lightning at 18:54 AEST and subsequently cancelled at 19:58 AEST once lightning activity cleared, with no constraint sets invoked in either direction. No other QLD-specific market interventions, non-conformance declarations, or minimum system load warnings are currently active for the region — the SA minimum system load notice for 30 August does not affect QLD1 operations.