Regional Outlook — QLD1: Thursday 27 August 2026
Queensland's spot price sits at $91.64/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 6,468 MW. This follows a volatile 24 hours that saw prices spike above $280/MWh during yesterday evening's peak before collapsing into negative territory ($-4.09/MWh) overnight as demand troughed near 3,870 MW around 04:30-05:00 AEST. The current price sits well below yesterday's evening peak but above the overnight lows, consistent with the morning demand ramp now underway as load climbs through the 6,000-7,000 MW band.
Generation mix at the current interval is dominated by black coal at 5,899 MW, supplying the bulk of the region's 7,449 MW total output. Wind contributes 542 MW and batteries are discharging 615 MW, supporting the morning ramp. Gas OCGT adds 315 MW, hydro 61 MW, and solar just 18 MW given the pre-dawn timing. Renewable penetration sits at 10% for the latest interval, down sharply from an overnight peak of nearly 50% between 02:00-05:00 AEST when wind generation and low demand combined to lift renewable share. Carbon intensity has correspondingly risen to 0.7807 tCO2/MWh, up from an overnight low of 0.4368 tCO2/MWh, tracking the inverse relationship between coal-dominant morning generation and renewable output.
Predispatch forecasts point to a further climb through the morning, with prices reaching $106-124/MWh between 08:00-11:00 AEST as demand peaks. A pullback is expected into the afternoon, with forecasts easing to the $83-105/MWh range from 12:00-16:30 AEST before softening further toward $72.95/MWh by 18:00 AEST. Overnight tonight, forecasts turn negative again, with prices projected as low as $-7.25/MWh between 02:00-05:00 AEST tomorrow — driven by low demand and continued wind contribution, consistent with today's identified low-carbon load-shifting windows in the same period.
On notices, Queensland-specific activity is limited to a system strength update in North Queensland (Notice 144931), with new constraint equations for the NQLD region implemented at 14:00 AEST yesterday incorporating Powerlink's latest transfer limit advice. A previously reclassified credible contingency event on the Mudgeeraba-Terranora 110 kV lines (lightning-related) was cancelled yesterday evening. The bulk of active market intervention and minimum system load notices relate to South Australia, with no current interventions affecting QLD1 directly. Weather today shows cool conditions (13-23°C) with strong solar potential (28.1) forecast for the afternoon, which should support renewable penetration recovery later in the day.