Regional Outlook — QLD1: Monday 24 August 2026
Queensland's spot price sits at $84.53/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, tracking well above the overnight trough where prices fell into negative territory (-$7.01/MWh at 15:45 AEST yesterday) during the low-demand period. The region has climbed steadily from a 04:15-05:45 window of near-zero and negative pricing as demand recovered from an overnight low near 4,800 MW to the current 6,588 MW, consistent with the typical morning ramp.
Generation mix at the current interval is dominated by black coal at 5,461.5 MW, with wind contributing 1,580.8 MW, batteries at 188.2 MW, gas (OCGT) at 93.4 MW, hydro at 33.1 MW, and solar at just 3.4 MW given the pre-dawn timing. Renewable penetration sits at 24.53%, down from overnight peaks above 50% between 23:00-01:00 AEST when wind generation and low demand combined to push coal's share down. Carbon intensity has risen accordingly to 0.6612 tCO2/MWh, up from an overnight low of 0.4272 tCO2/MWh, reflecting coal's larger share of the mix as wind output eases relative to demand through the morning.
Predispatch forecasts point to a firming trajectory through the day: prices are expected to ease slightly to around $72.50/MWh by 07:30 AEST before climbing sharply into the morning peak, with forecasts reaching $110.89/MWh by 18:00 AEST and peaking near $114.71/MWh at 19:00 AEST as demand builds toward the evening. Prices then moderate into the afternoon, settling around $72-85/MWh through the 23:00-04:00 AEST window tomorrow morning. Weather conditions today show minimal wind potential (1.1% average) and moderate solar potential (15.8% average) under partly cloudy skies, suggesting renewable output will remain modest and coal-fired generation will likely continue underpinning supply through the peak periods.
No active market notices are specific to Queensland today. Current AEMO notices concern non-conformance declarations and voltage-related interventions in South Australia, alongside network outage and contingency reclassifications in NSW, VIC and TAS — none of which carry direct implications for QLD dispatch or pricing at this time.