Regional Outlook — QLD1: Friday 21 August 2026
Queensland's spot price sits at $89.73/MWh as at 06:25 AEST, tracking near the top of an overnight range that swung from deep negative territory (-$7.01/MWh at 13:00 AEST yesterday) to a mid-afternoon peak near $90/MWh. Demand currently reads 5,946 MW, down from yesterday evening's peak above 7,300 MW but climbing off the overnight trough of 3,662 MW recorded around 02:35 AEST. The overnight price collapse coincided with minimum demand and strong wind output, before prices recovered sharply through the morning ramp as demand rebuilt.
Generation mix at 06:30 AEST shows black coal dominating supply at 5,327.79 MW, followed by wind at 322.55 MW, battery storage discharging 245.87 MW, gas (OCGT) at 96.93 MW, hydro at 66.19 MW, and solar barely contributing 3.05 MW given the pre-dawn timing and 98% cloud cover. Total renewable penetration sits at 10.52%, well down from the 40-50% range achieved overnight when wind generation was stronger and demand was lower. Carbon intensity has risen to 0.7838 tCO2/MWh, up from an overnight low of 0.4153 tCO2/MWh, reflecting coal's increased share of the mix as the region ramps into the morning peak.
Predispatch forecasts point to a sharp price escalation through the day. After a brief dip to $26-31/MWh in early morning trading intervals (00:00-06:00 AEST), prices are forecast to climb steeply from 07:00 AEST ($71.97/MWh) through to a peak of $264.78/MWh at 12:00 AEST, with elevated pricing persisting through early afternoon ($199-231/MWh range between 12:30-14:30 AEST) before easing to $84-100/MWh by late afternoon. Today's weather outlook shows minimal solar potential (0.2 average) and cloud cover at 73%, limiting rooftop and utility solar contribution through the midday peak — a key driver behind the forecast price spike as thermal and gas plant are called on to cover the gap.
No active market notices directly affect QLD1 today. Relevant network items include the completed H9 Palmwoods-H2 South Pine 275kV outage (returned to service 17 August) and the Woolooga-Teebar Creek 275kV line outage from 17 August, both already resolved. The most recent QLD-specific event was a non-credible contingency at Braemar No.1 275kV busbar on 18 August, with no load shedding instructed and cause unconfirmed. Traders should note the forecast midday price spike is weather-driven given the low solar potential outlook, not a supply notice or contingency event.