Regional Outlook — QLD1: Wednesday 19 August 2026
Queensland's spot price sits at $76.41/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, tracking near the top of an overnight range that swung from sub-zero pricing (as low as -$6.11/MWh around 15:05 AEST yesterday) to a peak of $88.88/MWh during the evening ramp. Demand has climbed to 6,848 MW and is rising into the morning peak, up from the overnight trough of ~3,997 MW. The pattern is typical for this time of year: negative prices overnight as wind and baseload coal outpaced low demand, followed by a sharp price recovery from 05:30 AEST as demand ramped and solar had not yet contributed meaningfully.
Generation mix is currently dominated by black coal at 5,285 MW, with wind contributing 1,421 MW and batteries delivering 702 MW into the market. Gas (OCGT) adds 83 MW, hydro 60 MW, and solar just 2 MW — reflecting the pre-dawn timing of this snapshot. Renewable penetration sits at 28.9%, up from a low of ~21% during yesterday's afternoon peak, and well below the overnight high of 53.9% reached around 23:30 AEST when demand was low and wind generation was strong. Carbon intensity is currently 0.6228 tCO2/MWh, easing from a daily high of 0.6946 tCO2/MWh in the early evening as renewable output increases.
Predispatch forecasts point to a firming price trajectory through the morning, with $71–85/MWh expected from 07:00 to 12:00 AEST, peaking near $85.33/MWh around 09:30 AEST as demand builds toward the daily maximum. Prices are then forecast to ease through the afternoon, dropping to the low $40s by 15:00–16:30 AEST as rooftop and grid solar ramp up under improving cloud conditions (solar potential lifts to 10.6% today), before recovering into the evening peak. Overnight, prices are expected to fall sharply again from 21:00 AEST, with several forecast intervals near $0–7/MWh into the early hours of 21 August — consistent with the load-shifting windows identified between 00:30 and 05:30 AEST, offering savings of $75–86/MWh versus peak pricing.
On notices, Queensland-specific items are limited to historical network events: the H9 Palmwoods–H2 South Pine 275kV line outage completed on 17 August, and a non-conformance declaration for WOOLGSF1 (143 MW) from 13 August, both no longer active constraints on today's market. No new QLD-specific interconnector or contingency notices are in effect this morning. Traders should note broader NEM volatility drivers — an active SA voltage-support intervention direction to AGL Torrens Island units and a VIC1 lightning-related contingency reclassification (since cancelled) — though neither directly constrains QLD flows at this stage.