Regional Outlook — QLD1: Saturday 22 August 2026
Queensland's spot price sits at $111.65/MWh as at 20:30 AEST, tracking near the top of today's range after climbing steadily from overnight lows below $60/MWh. Prices bottomed out around 05:00-05:30 AEST, briefly touching negative territory (-$0.06/MWh) during the early morning trough, before rising through the morning peak and holding in the $100-130/MWh band from 08:00 through to this evening. Demand peaked at 7,219 MW around 08:00 AEST and has since eased back to 5,896 MW.
Generation mix is dominated by black coal at 5,587 MW, comfortably the largest contributor. Wind is supplying 649 MW, gas OCGT 100 MW, hydro 33 MW, battery output 17 MW, and solar a negligible 2.65 MW given the late evening timing. Renewable penetration sits at 10.99%, well down from the 30-37% band seen overnight between 22:00-05:00 AEST when wind generation was stronger relative to demand. Carbon intensity is currently 0.7797 tCO2/MWh, near the day's high — it dipped as low as 0.55 tCO2/MWh overnight and has climbed steadily since the 06:00 AEST morning ramp as coal's share of the mix increased.
Predispatch forecasts point to a sharp price fall overnight, with the 21:00-05:00 AEST window forecast to swing negative, bottoming around -$7/MWh between 00:00 and 04:30 AEST tomorrow — consistent with typical low-demand, high-wind overnight conditions. Prices are then forecast to recover through tomorrow morning, reaching $84-88/MWh by 08:00-09:30 AEST before easing back into the $50-70/MWh range through the afternoon. Tomorrow's weather outlook shows solar potential improving to 16.6% average with wind steady around 0.8, suggesting a similar diurnal renewable pattern to today.
No active market notices are specific to Queensland today. Current AEMO notices are concentrated on SA (voltage-related intervention directions active since 22 August, with a further foreseeable intervention flagged for SA from 10:30 AEST tomorrow) and TAS/VIC network contingency reclassifications tied to lightning activity. One QLD-specific notice from 18 August recorded a non-credible contingency event (Braemar No.1 275kV busbar trip) with no load shedding required — no ongoing impact expected on today's dispatch.