Regional Outlook — QLD1: Sunday 23 August 2026
Queensland's spot price sits at $66.97/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, tracking near the middle of a volatile 24-hour band that swung from -$10.32/MWh overnight (02:00-04:30 AEST, driven by strong wind output and low demand) to a peak of $102.80/MWh in yesterday evening's ramp. Demand currently reads 6,419 MW, off its overnight low of roughly 3,300 MW and climbing into the morning ramp, consistent with typical weekday demand shape.
Generation mix at the last snapshot (05:55 AEST) is led by black coal at 4,728 MW, with wind contributing a strong 1,627 MW, gas OCGT at 93 MW, battery output at 136 MW, hydro at 57 MW, and solar negligible at 0.23 MW pre-dawn. Renewable penetration sits at 27.4%, well down from the overnight peak of 47.4% reached around 22:55 AEST when wind generation and low demand combined to push renewables above coal's typical share. Carbon intensity has risen accordingly to 0.6355 tCO2/MWh, up from an overnight low near 0.46 tCO2/MWh, reflecting coal's larger share of the mix as wind eases off and demand builds through the morning.
Predispatch forecasts point to a firming price trajectory through the day: $77.62/MWh by 07:00 AEST, climbing to a forecast peak around $102.44/MWh near 09:30 AEST as morning demand ramps against moderating wind output, before easing back through the afternoon to the high $30s-$40/MWh range by 15:00-17:00 AEST. Prices are expected to firm again into the evening peak, forecast at $54.50/MWh by 18:00 AEST. Solar potential today is modest at 16.6% average, with wind potential low at 0.7%, suggesting today's renewable contribution will lean heavily on wind variability rather than strong solar support.
No active market notices directly affect QLD1 today — recent AEMO interventions and directions (voltage control actions at Barker Inlet and Torrens Island) are confined to the SA region, and the non-conformance notice for NUMURSF1 relates to VIC. Traders should note the overnight negative pricing window has closed and the region is now in a firming price phase, with grid stress scoring elevated at 81.7 on gridIQ's composite index, reflecting the wide price swings and rapid renewable-to-coal mix transition through the morning ramp.