Regional Outlook — QLD1: Thursday 20 August 2026
Queensland's spot price sits at $72.50/MWh at 06:30 AEST, tracking near the middle of its overnight range after a volatile 24 hours that swung from a peak of $91.02/MWh around 18:00 yesterday afternoon down to negative pricing (-$4.97/MWh) through the 13:30-14:00 overnight trough as demand fell to a low near 4,510 MW. Demand is now rebuilding through the morning ramp, currently at 6,911 MW and climbing as the working day begins. The predispatch trajectory shows prices easing slightly into the 21:00-22:00 window ($78.52 to $54.75/MWh) before turning negative overnight (-$1.31 to -$4.85/MWh between 23:00 and 02:00 AEST), then recovering sharply through tomorrow's morning peak to a forecast high of $93.15/MWh around 09:30 AEST — a pattern consistent with strong rooftop and grid-scale solar suppressing midday prices before evening ramp tightens the market.
Generation mix is currently dominated by black coal at 5,458 MW, supplying the bulk of QLD1 output, with wind contributing 1,196 MW and battery storage at 381 MW providing fast-response capacity. Gas OCGT sits at 94 MW, hydro at 61 MW, and solar is negligible at 1.8 MW given the current overnight/early morning interval. Renewable penetration is at 22.79%, well down from the 51.9% peak recorded around 23:30 last night when wind generation and lower demand combined to push renewables above half the mix. Carbon intensity has risen accordingly to 0.6764 tCO2/MWh, up from an overnight low of 0.4205 tCO2/MWh, reflecting the increased reliance on coal generation as solar output has not yet ramped for the day — daily solar potential is forecast at just 19.2% today under 31% cloud cover, with cooler conditions (11-21°C) limiting both cooling demand and rooftop solar contribution.
Two active QLD-specific network notices are worth flagging: a planned transmission outage on the H9 Palmwoods to H2 South Pine 275 kV line has been in effect since 17 August and doesn't clear until 21:00 AEST today, with associated constraint set Q-X_PWSP_CPWO_O still governing interconnector flows on NSW1-QLD1. A separate non-credible contingency event tripped the R2 Braemar No.1 275 kV busbar on 18 August, though AEMO confirmed no load shedding or bulk load disconnection resulted. Traders should also note a WOOLGSF1 non-conformance declaration from 13 August (143 MW over 35 minutes) — historical but indicative of ongoing solar farm dispatch variability in the region. No QLD-specific market interventions or reserve notices are currently active.