Regional Outlook — QLD1: Tuesday 25 August 2026
Queensland spot price sits at $103.51/MWh at 20:30 AEST, easing from the evening peak of $178.81/MWh recorded at 07:15 and holding within the $85-$120/MWh band that has characterised trade since the morning demand ramp. Total demand reads 6,499 MW, up from an overnight trough near 4,530 MW between 00:00 and 01:30 AEST, when prices briefly fell to $18-$32/MWh. The 24-hour trend shows the classic overnight-low, morning-ramp, evening-peak pattern, with the sharpest price spikes ($160-$179/MWh) clustered between 07:15 and 08:30 AEST as demand climbed through 7,500 MW.
Generation mix at the current interval is dominated by black coal at 5,962 MW, comfortably the largest contributor. Wind is contributing 235 MW and hydro 230 MW, with battery output at 294 MW supporting the evening ramp. Gas OCGT adds 96 MW and solar has tapered to just 1.2 MW as the sun has set. Renewable penetration sits at 11.15% for this interval, well down from the overnight peak of around 52% reached near 23:30-00:00 AEST when wind and hydro carried a larger share of load. Carbon intensity has correspondingly risen to 0.7787 tCO2/MWh, up from an overnight low of 0.4192 tCO2/MWh, tracking the inverse relationship between renewable share and emissions intensity that has repeated through the day — intensity peaked near 0.8573 tCO2/MWh around 18:55 AEST during the evening demand build.
Predispatch forecasts point to further easing overnight, with prices falling toward $23-$26/MWh between 01:00 and 02:00 AEST tomorrow and bottoming near $9.41/MWh at 06:00 AEST as demand troughs. A sharp rebound is forecast through the morning ramp, with prices climbing back to $89-$105/MWh by 07:30-09:00 AEST as coal and gas plant respond to rising load. Midday prices are expected to hold near $100-$108/MWh before easing into the afternoon toward $84.50/MWh by 15:00-16:30 AEST. Traders eyeing load-shifting opportunities should note the identified low-cost windows overnight, particularly 05:30-06:30 AEST at an average $10.47/MWh, offering the largest spread versus today's peak.
No Queensland-specific market notices are currently active. The AEMO notice board today is dominated by NSW1 non-conformance (VP6 unit, -21 MW, 05:45-05:50 AEST) and a run of VIC1/SA1/TAS1 network reclassifications and intervention events tied to lightning activity and voltage support in South Australia — none of which carry direct implications for QLD1 dispatch or interconnector flows at this stage. Weather conditions in Queensland show 95% cloud cover and negligible solar potential currently, with tomorrow's outlook improving to 44% average cloud cover and 5.7% solar potential, suggesting a modest lift in daytime renewable contribution is likely tomorrow versus today's low.