Regional Outlook — QLD1: Saturday 29 August 2026
Queensland's spot price sits at $63.73/MWh at 06:30 AEST, tracking well below the volatility seen across the prior 24 hours, when prices swung from a peak of $102.01/MWh during Friday evening's demand ramp down to negative territory (-$7.50/MWh) through the overnight trough as demand collapsed to a low of 3,887 MW. Demand has since rebuilt to 5,560 MW as the Sunday morning ramp gets underway. The past day's average price lands in the $40-50/MWh range once the extended overnight negative-price period is factored in, meaning today's current print represents a moderate premium to that trailing average, consistent with the morning demand pickup.
Generation mix at the current interval totals 7,005 MW, dominated by black coal at 5,058.85 MW (72.2%), followed by wind at 1,590.76 MW (22.7%). Battery storage is contributing 203.21 MW, gas (OCGT) 96.3 MW, hydro 33.21 MW, and solar just 23.06 MW given the pre-dawn timing of this snapshot. Wind is doing the bulk of the renewable heavy lifting overnight, with solar set to ramp sharply once the sun is up — today's solar potential outlook is modest at 16% average, reflecting mostly clear but cool conditions (13°C currently, max 22°C forecast).
Carbon intensity currently reads 0.6444 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 26.41%, a step down from the overnight peak of 51.69% renewables reached around 22:30 AEST last night when wind output was strongest and demand was low. Intensity has been trending upward since sunset yesterday, having bottomed near 0.42 tCO2/MWh overnight and climbed steadily as coal's share of the mix increased through the morning ramp — expect this pattern to persist until solar generation builds through the late morning.
Predispatch forecasts point to a sharp reversal from current levels: prices are expected to dip into negative territory from 06:30 AEST through to around 15:30 AEST (as low as -$8.71/MWh near 14:30 AEST), driven by the low overnight demand floor, before surging back above $95/MWh by 17:00-18:30 AEST and peaking near $98.73/MWh around 17:30 AEST as the evening demand ramp collides with reduced solar output. Traders should note the tight window of negative pricing overnight into early afternoon offers load-shifting opportunities, with modelled savings of $100-160/MWh versus peak across several one-hour blocks between 00:00 and 06:00 AEST tomorrow.
On notices, Queensland-specific items are limited to a system strength update for North Queensland constraint equations (effective 27 August) and a resolved non-conformance event for GUSF1 on 28 August, with no active QLD-specific interventions currently in force. The bulk of today's AEMO market notices concern voltage-related directions and foreseeable intervention advice in South Australia, including a direction issued to AGL SA Generation's Torrens Island unit to synchronise from 09:00 AEST today — these do not directly affect Queensland dispatch conditions but are relevant for NEM-wide inter-regional flow monitoring.