Regional Outlook — QLD1: Monday 31 August 2026
Queensland's spot price sits at $63.76/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, tracking below yesterday evening's peak of $116.51/MWh but consistent with the region's typical morning ramp. Prices swung from negative territory (-$3.21/MWh) overnight between 05:30-14:30 AEST on low demand and strong renewable output, before climbing through the evening peak. Demand currently sits at 6,314 MW, up from an overnight trough near 4,050 MW.
Generation mix shows black coal dominant at 4,995 MW, supplying the bulk of dispatch, with wind contributing 1,495 MW, batteries at 184 MW, gas OCGT at 97 MW, hydro at 33 MW, and negligible solar (0.2 MW) given the current evening interval. Renewable penetration sits at 25.2%, down from a high of 52.6% recorded around 09:00 AEST yesterday when overnight wind generation peaked and demand was low. Carbon intensity is currently 0.6553 tCO2/MWh, near the top of today's range — the intensity band has moved between 0.41 and 0.67 tCO2/MWh over the past 24 hours, inversely tracking renewable output.
Predispatch forecasts show prices easing through the evening, with the 21:00 AEST interval at $64.95/MWh, dropping to $28.75/MWh by 22:00 AEST and turning negative (-$3.21/MWh) from 23:00 AEST through to around 05:00 AEST tomorrow — consistent with low overnight demand and continued wind contribution. Prices are forecast to rebound sharply from 06:30 AEST tomorrow, reaching $93.21/MWh by 08:00 AEST as morning demand builds, before moderating to the mid-$50s/MWh by late afternoon. Weather outlook shows rising solar potential over the coming week (12.5 to 24.0) as cloud cover clears, which should support daytime renewable output and price relief into the weekend.
No active market notices are specific to QLD1 price-affecting conditions today. Recent QLD-specific notices include a non-conformance declaration for unit MPP_1 (-43 MW, 30 August) and an updated system strength constraint set for North Queensland effective 27 August, both administrative in nature. AEMO systems maintenance is scheduled for 3 September (MSATS outage 13:00-17:00 AEST) and 6 September (B2B Hub outage 10:00-14:00 AEST) — neither affects today's dispatch. Most active intervention and minimum system load notices this week relate to the SA region, not QLD1.