Regional Outlook — QLD1: Wednesday 9 September 2026
Queensland spot price sits at $102.74/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, tracking near the top of an overnight-to-morning climb that took prices from sub-$0/MWh territory around 07:35-08:00 AEST yesterday evening up through the $80-107/MWh band that has held since the 18:00 AEST peak build began. Demand is at 6,394 MW and rising, up from an overnight trough near 3,900 MW. Prices have been volatile across the 24-hour window: a deep overnight trough saw multiple negative and near-zero prints between 21:30 and 01:00 AEST as demand fell below 4,000 MW, followed by a steady ramp through the morning shoulder that peaked near $112/MWh at 12:50 AEST before easing into the $70-90/MWh band through the afternoon and evening.
Generation mix is currently dominated by black coal at 5,453 MW, followed by wind at 1,068 MW, battery output at 414 MW, hydro at 197 MW, gas (OCGT) at 99 MW, and solar at just 33 MW given the late-evening timing. Renewable penetration sits at 23.57%, recovering from an afternoon low near 11.6% at 12:55 AEST when solar output faded and coal carried the bulk of load. Carbon intensity is 0.6694 tCO2/MWh, down from a midday peak of 0.7693 tCO2/MWh but still elevated versus the overnight low of 0.4708 tCO2/MWh recorded around 22:55 AEST when wind and hydro contributed a higher share.
Predispatch forecasts show prices easing sharply from current levels, falling to $63.73/MWh by 07:30 AEST and down to $29.83/MWh by 09:00 AEST as demand tapers overnight. The forecast trajectory then shows a strong morning ramp tomorrow, climbing from $50/MWh at 16:00 AEST through $95-102/MWh across the 18:00-19:30 AEST window as the morning peak builds, before moderating to a $72-90/MWh band through the middle of the day. Identified low-cost windows for flexible load sit between 11:30 AEST and 14:30 AEST tomorrow, with average prices of $30-42/MWh and zero carbon intensity recorded in the model, offering savings of $60-72/MWh versus peak-period consumption.
No active market notices are specific to Queensland today. Current AEMO notices relate to SA region voltage-support interventions (directions to AGL SA Generation's Torrens Island units, plus a foreseeable intervention flagged for SA from 10:00 AEST tomorrow), a VIC interconnector outage now resolved, and routine market systems maintenance. Grid stress score for the region reads 68.4, reflecting the current demand ramp, while the market conditions score sits at 48.3, consistent with the moderate volatility seen through today's trading.