Regional Outlook — QLD1: Tuesday 8 September 2026
Queensland spot price sits at $78.52/MWh at 06:30 AEST, tracking near the middle of a volatile 24-hour band that ran from negative territory ($3.94/MWh) overnight to a peak of $163.57/MWh during this morning's 07:30 demand ramp. Demand currently reads 6,298 MW, up sharply from the overnight low of 4,073 MW, with the ramp between 05:30 and 08:00 driving prices from $40/MWh to a session peak above $160/MWh as the system absorbed the morning load pickup. That morning peak has since eased back to current levels through the day as demand plateaued and later softened into the evening.
The generation mix is currently led by black coal at 5,274 MW, comfortably the largest single contributor, with wind adding 1,207 MW and battery storage at 479 MW playing a supporting role in managing the ramp. Gas OCGT contributes a modest 99 MW, hydro 28 MW, and solar has tapered to just 42 MW as the evening period sets in. Renewable penetration sits at 24.65%, down from an overnight high near 46.6% when wind generation and low demand combined to lift the renewable share substantially — a pattern typical of Queensland's diurnal renewables profile, where overnight wind output plus minimal load pushes renewable percentage well above daytime levels dominated by coal-fired baseload.
Carbon intensity currently reads 0.660 tCO2/MWh, up from an overnight trough of 0.466 tCO2/MWh recorded around midnight, tracking inversely with the renewable percentage as expected. Predispatch forecasts point to further downside near-term, with prices dropping to $55.53/MWh by 21:30 AEST and falling into low single digits and negative territory ($-3/MWh) between 23:30 and 04:30 AEST tomorrow as overnight demand troughs. The forecast then shows a sharp rebound from 05:30 AEST tomorrow, climbing through $62.73/MWh at 06:00 and reaching $93.73/MWh by 08:00 and 09:00 as the next morning ramp begins — a repeat of today's pattern. Tomorrow's weather outlook shows improved solar potential (22%, up from today's near-zero cloud-free but low-angle conditions) and mild temperatures (13.7–23.8°C), suggesting moderate rooftop PV contribution during midday hours.
No active market notices directly affect the Queensland region today; current AEMO interventions and directions are concentrated in South Australia (voltage support directions to Torrens Island) and non-conformance declarations in SA1 and VIC1. Traders should note the load-shifting opportunity flagged for the 00:00–04:00 AEST window tomorrow, where forecast prices near $-3/MWh offer material savings versus the current evening peak.