Regional Outlook — QLD1: Saturday 12 September 2026
Queensland spot price sits at $38.04/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, down sharply from the $60-85/MWh band that held through yesterday evening's peak and this morning's 16:30-19:00 AEST window, where prices repeatedly touched $78-84/MWh. Demand is at 5,267 MW, off its overnight peak near 6,900 MW recorded around 18:00 AEST yesterday. The 24-hour trend shows the now-familiar overnight collapse to nil or negative pricing (as low as -$7.77/MWh) between 00:00-05:00 AEST as demand troughed near 3,300-3,900 MW, followed by a sharp ramp into the morning peak.
Generation mix is currently led by black coal at 4,341 MW, with wind contributing a strong 1,381 MW, solar at 173 MW, gas OCGT at 100 MW, battery at 2 MW, and hydro offline at 0 MW. Total renewable penetration sits at 25.95%, well down from the overnight peak of over 50% reached between 22:30-00:30 AEST when demand was low and wind generation dominated the mix. Carbon intensity has risen accordingly to 0.6478 tCO2/MWh, up from an overnight low of 0.4069 tCO2/MWh, tracking the inverse relationship between renewable share and demand through the day.
Predispatch forecasts point to a return to negative pricing overnight, with prices falling to -$18.21/MWh by 03:00 AEST tomorrow (13 September) as demand troughs and wind output likely dominates again. From 06:30 AEST forecasts show a swift rebound to $38.84/MWh, climbing through the morning to a peak of $79.75/MWh around 08:30 AEST, before easing back to the low-$60s/MWh through midday and settling near $55-62/MWh into the evening. Traders should note the pattern mirrors today's overnight-trough, morning-peak profile closely.
No QLD-specific market notices are currently active — all recent AEMO interventions, directions and non-conformance notices relate to SA and VIC regions (voltage support directions at Torrens Island, SA minimum system load events, and NSW-VIC/VIC-SA negative settlement residue constraints). One QLD non-conformance notice from 11 September (unit MPP_1, -18 MW) has since cleared. Weather today is mild and clear, with cloud cover forecast at just 19% and solar potential improving through the week, supporting stronger rooftop and utility solar contribution as we move into the afternoon.