Regional Outlook — QLD1: Friday 11 September 2026
Queensland spot price sits at $84.54/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, tracking near the middle of a volatile overnight range that swung from a low of $0.00/MWh around 05:35 AEST to a peak above $112/MWh during the 17:55-18:00 UTC (03:55-04:00 AEST) morning demand ramp. Demand currently reads 5,609 MW, down from yesterday's evening peak of 7,235 MW recorded around 18:35 AEST. The 24-hour pattern shows the typical shape: prices collapsed toward zero overnight as demand troughed near 4,660-4,900 MW, then climbed steadily through the morning ramp before settling into the current band of $70-90/MWh through the day.
Generation mix at the latest 20:25 AEST interval is dominated by black coal at 4,834 MW, with wind contributing 1,166 MW, battery output at 257 MW, gas (OCGT) at 101 MW, hydro at 28 MW, and solar at 62 MW (reflecting the late-evening timestamp with minimal daylight generation). Renewable penetration sits at 23.47%, having declined from an overnight peak of 50.29% recorded around 09:00 AEST when wind generation was strongest and demand was low. Carbon intensity currently reads 0.6699 tCO2/MWh, up from an overnight low of 0.4343 tCO2/MWh — the inverse relationship between renewable share and carbon intensity is clear across the trailing 24 hours, with intensity climbing steadily as the day progressed and coal's share of the mix increased.
Predispatch forecasts show prices easing overnight into negative territory, with troughs of -$6.54/MWh forecast around 12:00 AEST (02:00 UTC) as low demand and wind generation persist. Prices are then forecast to recover through the morning ramp, reaching $87.11/MWh by 18:00 AEST and holding in the $80-90/MWh band through midday trade, before easing back toward $63-72/MWh into the evening. Traders should note the low-price window between 00:30-06:00 AEST tomorrow, with load-shifting opportunities identified across five separate one-hour blocks averaging between -$6.47/MWh and -$2.43/MWh, each offering $93-97/MWh in savings versus peak.
On notices, Queensland has one active item: AEMO declared unit MPP_1 non-conforming for a -18 MW deviation between 12:15-13:10 AEST on 11 September under constraint NC-Q_MPP_1. No QLD-specific market interventions or directions are currently active — the bulk of intervention activity (SA voltage control directions to Torrens Island, NSW-VIC negative settlement residue constraints) is centred on SA and the southern states and does not directly affect QLD dispatch conditions today. Weather outlook shows mild conditions (13.9-21.8°C) with modest solar potential (18.4%) and low wind potential (1.3%), consistent with the moderate renewable contribution expected through the day.