Regional Outlook — QLD1: Tuesday 15 September 2026
Queensland's spot price sits at $99.68/MWh at 06:30 AEST, sitting well above yesterday's overnight trough of below -$10/MWh but consistent with the region's typical morning ramp. Demand is at 6,190 MW, up sharply from the 3,400-3,800 MW range seen through the 10am-2pm overnight lull. Prices swung from negative territory (-$10/MWh) in the small hours to a peak of $108.49/MWh at 20:20 last night, reflecting the now-familiar pattern of solar-driven midday softness followed by evening demand ramps as rooftop and utility-scale solar drop away.
Generation mix at the current interval is dominated by black coal at 5,189 MW, comfortably the largest contributor. Wind is providing 413 MW, batteries 286 MW, hydro 225 MW, solar 212 MW, and gas OCGT 97 MW. Total scheduled generation sits around 6,420 MW against demand of 6,190 MW. Renewable penetration is at 17.7%, down from an overnight peak above 50% when coal output was lower relative to wind and hydro. Carbon intensity has climbed to 0.7208 tCO2/MWh, up from a low of 0.42 tCO2/MWh around 23:00 last night — the inverse relationship between renewable share and carbon intensity is clear across the past 24 hours, with intensity troughing near midnight and rising steadily through the morning as coal reasserts its share of the mix.
Predispatch forecasts point to a firming trend through the day. Prices are expected to ease slightly into the next hour ($78.52/MWh at 07:00 AEST) before diving negative overnight (-$4 to -$9/MWh from 08:00 to 15:00 AEST) as low demand and continuing renewable output push prices down again. The next material spike is forecast for tomorrow's morning peak, with prices climbing to $130.75/MWh by 08:00 AEST and peaking at $139.50/MWh around 10:30 AEST on 17 September, before easing back to the $70-95/MWh band through the afternoon. Traders should note the five identified low-price windows overnight (all in the -$5 to -$9/MWh range), offering load-shifting opportunities of $144-148/MWh in savings versus current peak pricing.
On notices, Queensland itself has no active constraints beyond a resolved non-conformance event for unit MPP_1 on 11 September. The bulk of active AEMO market interventions concern South Australia (voltage control directions to AGL's Torrens Island units, extended until 16:30 AEST today) and Tasmania (contingency reclassifications tied to lightning activity around the Gordon-Chapel St and Farrell-Reece 220kV lines, both since cancelled). None of these directly constrain Queensland flows, but the SA voltage management situation remains one to watch given its potential knock-on effects for Victoria-SA interconnector flows and broader NEM price volatility.