Regional Outlook — QLD1: Monday 14 September 2026
Queensland's spot price sits at $78.54/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, tracking near the top of a wide overnight range that saw prices swing from a peak of $87.93/MWh at 05:30 down to negative territory (-$8.51/MWh) during the low-demand window around 15:10 AEST. Demand currently sits at 6,220 MW, having peaked near 7,410 MW mid-morning and troughed below 3,800 MW overnight. The evening ramp from 16:00 AEST saw prices climb steadily from the $60s into the high $70s and $80s as demand built back toward 6,000+ MW, consistent with typical evening peak dynamics.
Generation mix at the current interval is dominated by black coal at 5,106 MW, supplying the bulk of Queensland's 6,717 MW total output. Wind is contributing 865 MW, batteries are dispatching 367 MW, solar is delivering a modest 282 MW as the panel's output tapers into evening, gas OCGT adds 97 MW, and hydro sits at 0 MW. Renewable penetration reads 22.5% at this interval, well down from the overnight peak of around 51% reached between 22:00-01:00 AEST when demand was low and wind generation covered a larger share of a smaller load. Carbon intensity has risen in step with the falling renewable share, currently at 0.678 tCO2/MWh, up from a low of 0.42 tCO2/MWh overnight and tracking near the day's higher band as coal's share of total generation increases into the evening peak.
Predispatch forecasts point to a sharp reversal overnight: prices are expected to fall through the $30s and $0 range by 21:00-21:30 AEST, then turn negative from 22:00 AEST, bottoming around -$12.60/MWh between 03:00-04:30 AEST tomorrow — consistent with the low overnight demand and wind contribution pattern seen last night. Prices then recover sharply from 07:00 AEST, forecast to reach $54.75/MWh, climbing through the $80s and peaking near $96.30/MWh around 13:00 AEST tomorrow as demand rebuilds. Traders with flexible load should note the identified low-price windows between 00:30-02:30 AEST and 03:00-06:00 AEST tomorrow, each offering savings of $104-109/MWh versus peak pricing with zero carbon intensity in the load-shifting model.
No active market notices are specific to Queensland today. Recent AEMO notices are concentrated in South Australia, covering ongoing voltage control directions to AGL's Torrens Island units and a forecast Minimum System Load (MSL1) condition for 19 September, plus a completed transmission outage on the Eraring-Newcastle 330kV line in NSW. A prior QLD non-conformance notice for unit MPP_1 on 11 September has since cleared. Weather outlook shows mild conditions with light winds (6.7 km/h) and clear skies, with tomorrow's solar potential rising to 39% — a factor likely supporting the forecast midday price softening before the afternoon peak.