Regional Outlook — QLD1: Thursday 17 September 2026
Queensland's spot price sits at $94.54/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, easing back from a sharp overnight spike to $175.11/MWh at 06:20 and $150.20/MWh five minutes prior. Demand is at 6,246 MW and climbing through the morning ramp. The past 24 hours have shown the region's characteristic swing: prices fell to negative territory overnight (down to -$9.95/MWh in the 02:00-05:00 window) as demand troughed near 3,300-3,800 MW, then rallied hard through the morning ramp as demand rebuilt past 7,000 MW, peaking near $120/MWh around 07:45-08:00 before settling into a $75-95/MWh band through the day.
Generation mix at the current interval is led by black coal at 5,362 MW, with wind contributing 1,015 MW, solar at 351 MW, battery output at 303 MW, hydro at 253 MW, and gas (OCGT) at 103 MW. Renewable penetration sits at 26.0%, in line with the broader daytime range of 20-30% seen through Thursday's session, though overnight periods pushed renewable share as high as 51.9% when wind generation dominated a low-demand system. Carbon intensity is currently 0.6479 tCO2/MWh, near the upper end of the past 24 hours' range (0.42-0.72 tCO2/MWh), reflecting coal's larger share of the mix as solar output tapers into the evening.
Predispatch forecasts show prices easing into negative territory overnight, with troughs of -$10/MWh around 02:00-02:30 AEST tomorrow, before recovering through the morning ramp to around $65-90/MWh by 07:00-09:00. A firmer afternoon peak is flagged for 12:30 AEST at $114.69/MWh, likely tied to demand build combined with reduced solar contribution. Weather outlook supports a mild, clear day with 23.7°C max and cloud cover under 20%, favouring solid rooftop and utility solar output through midday, which should help cap the early afternoon price trajectory before evening ramp pressures reassert.
No active market notices are specific to Queensland today — all current AEMO intervention and minimum system load notices relate to SA voltage management and are not expected to directly affect QLD dispatch. Traders should note the load-shifting windows identified overnight (00:00-06:30 AEST tomorrow) offer strongly negative pricing, with savings of up to $124/MWh versus today's peak, useful for flexible load or battery charging strategies.