Commodity Demand — TAS1: Friday 18 September 2026
Tasmania spot price sits at $0.01/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 920 MW, tracking the overnight-to-morning ramp as the region climbs off its 04:00-05:00 AEST trough of roughly 780-870 MW. Overnight demand fell as low as 783 MW around 04:10 AEST, coinciding with prices deep in negative territory (-$34/MWh sustained through the 11:00-14:00 UTC window, equivalent to 21:00-00:00 AEST). This confirms Tasmania's tight demand-price coupling: with wind (427 MW) and hydro (239 MW) fully covering load and zero gas dispatch, any softening in demand below roughly 900 MW pushes price toward the market floor as surplus renewable output has nowhere to go.
The demand trajectory through yesterday's evening peak shows the sensitivity clearly — demand climbed from 1120 MW to a peak near 1214 MW between 20:35 and 21:45 AEST, and price responded by falling from $88/MWh to near zero as that peak was met comfortably by hydro-wind output. The real price risk sits at the shoulders: the 07:00-08:30 AEST morning ramp saw demand build from 1027 MW to 1150 MW, dragging price from $0.74/MWh to a local high of $49/MWh, before easing back to the $25-40/MWh band as demand plateaued near 1050-1090 MW through mid-morning. Today's forecast curve points to a similar pattern, with prices tipped to strengthen into the $60-77/MWh range around 18:00-20:30 AEST target times (08:00-10:30 UTC) before collapsing again overnight, consistent with wind generation and hydro dispatch comfortably covering the demand curve outside the shoulder peaks.
Demand is forecast to stay below the 1,200 MW mark for today, well within the combined hydro-wind capability visible in the current mix, with the AEMO forecast showing extended stretches of sub-zero and near-zero pricing overnight and into early afternoon. The load window analysis flags the 06:00-08:00 AEST block (today's forecast target) as the best low-cost opportunity, averaging -$12 to -$4/MWh, a $270-282/MWh saving versus peak — reflecting the same oversupply dynamic driving current pricing. No demand-side constraints or directions are active in TAS1; the region's active notices relate to transmission contingency reclassifications (Farrell-Reece and Gordon-Chapel St lines, both now cancelled) rather than load-side issues, so today's price path remains driven purely by the renewable supply-demand balance rather than network limitations.