Commodity Demand — TAS1: Wednesday 16 September 2026
Tasmania's spot price has jumped to $152.83/MWh at 06:30 AEST as demand climbs to 1,139 MW, up from an overnight trough below 900 MW around 02:00-04:00 AEST when prices fell to single digits and briefly negative. This morning surge continues a clear pattern from the past 24 hours: demand above 1,150 MW consistently pushes price into the $85-150/MWh band, while demand below 950 MW sees prices collapse to $10-50/MWh. The overnight period saw demand as low as 736 MW at 04:15 AEST, coinciding with some of the session's lowest prices before a sharp evening ramp began.
The generation mix at the current interval shows hydro supplying 1,162 MW against total demand of 1,139 MW, with wind contributing a further 208 MW and gas OCGT filling 29 MW — indicating some export flow to Victoria via Basslink given hydro output exceeds local demand. Carbon intensity sits at just 0.0136 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 97.9%, reflecting Tasmania's hydro-dominant supply stack even during this morning price spike. The price sensitivity here is less about generation scarcity and more about bidding behaviour in the hydro fleet responding to demand-driven price signals and interconnector dynamics with the mainland.
AEMO's forecast trajectory points to a sustained high-price period ahead: prices are expected to hold near $88-130/MWh through the morning before stepping up sharply from 09:00 AEST, with forecasts reaching $145-151/MWh through mid-morning and peaking near $146/MWh into early afternoon (11:00-12:00 AEST target intervals). This aligns with the demand pattern seen yesterday, where the 08:00-11:00 AEST window consistently produced the day's highest demand (1,250-1,280 MW) and firmest prices. Overnight forecasts show a return to low-price conditions after 23:00 AEST tonight, with one flagged forecast spike to $320/MWh at 01:30 AEST tomorrow that warrants monitoring given the volatility already evident in this dataset. Today's weather — 8.1°C, heavy cloud cover at 96%, minimal wind potential — supports continued reliance on hydro dispatch rather than wind or solar contribution through the morning peak.