Commodity Demand — TAS1: Tuesday 15 September 2026
Tasmania spot price sits at $94.07/MWh as of 06:30 AEST, with demand at 1,142.61 MW and climbing through the morning ramp. This follows a sharp overnight and early-morning divergence: demand troughed near 795-850 MW between 02:00-05:00 AEST with prices deeply negative (-$15 to -$20/MWh) as low overnight load outpaced hydro and wind output. Once demand cleared 1,000 MW around 07:20 AEST, prices snapped from near-zero to the $50-70/MWh band within 15 minutes, confirming Tasmania's price curve is highly sensitive around the 950-1,050 MW threshold — a relatively narrow demand band separates negative pricing from $60-90/MWh outcomes.
The evening peak is the key driver of today's current $94.07/MWh print. Demand has climbed from 900 MW at 18:00 AEST to over 1,140 MW by 20:30 AEST, tracking a similar evening ramp pattern seen yesterday, which peaked near 1,215 MW at 08:40 AEST (in the prior day's cycle) with prices spiking above $100/MWh. AEMO's five-minute forecast curve reinforces this trajectory: forecast price eases to $28.59/MWh by 21:30 AEST and turns negative (-$3 to -$9/MWh) through the 22:00-06:00 AEST overnight trough, consistent with the demand-price relationship observed over the past 24 hours.
Looking at today's (16 September) forecast trajectory, the demand-driven price recovery is expected to be sharper than yesterday. AEMO's forward curve shows prices climbing from -$6.80/MWh at 06:00 AEST to $49.48/MWh by 07:00 AEST, then surging to $112.41/MWh at 08:00 AEST and peaking near $122.87/MWh at 10:30-11:00 AEST — materially higher than today's morning peak of ~$71/MWh. This suggests either tighter supply margins or stronger demand growth is priced in for the Wednesday morning block, with elevated pricing persisting through midday ($96-109/MWh) before easing to $75-88/MWh through the afternoon and evening. Traders should note the identified low-price windows (02:00-07:00 AEST tomorrow, averaging -$4 to -$9/MWh) offer clear load-shifting opportunities, saving $126-132/MWh versus peak-period consumption.
On the supply side, hydro remains the dominant generator at 1,049.95 MW alongside 304.44 MW of wind, with zero gas OCKT output — Tasmania is running at 100% renewable share and zero carbon intensity through the current interval. No Tasmania-specific demand-side constraints are active; the two contingency reclassifications on Gordon-Chapel St and Farrell-Reece lines have both been cancelled, leaving the network unconstrained heading into today's peak.