Commodity Demand — TAS1: Sunday 13 September 2026
Tasmania demand sits at 1,035 MW as of 06:30 AEST (settlement 20:30 UTC), with spot price at $48.65/MWh — down from an early evening peak near $63/MWh at 06:10 AEST. The region has moved through a pronounced demand cycle overnight: demand troughed near 900 MW around 02:30-03:30 AEST (16:00-17:00 UTC) with prices flat around $50/MWh, then climbed steadily through the evening peak, pushing to a local high of 1,192 MW at 18:40 UTC (04:40 AEST) that coincided with prices spiking to $50-62/MWh range. The overnight period saw sustained negative pricing (as low as -$15.01/MWh) when demand ran 950-1,050 MW against strong hydro and wind output — a reminder that in Tasmania, price direction depends heavily on renewable output alongside demand, not demand alone.
Price sensitivity to demand in TAS1 is asymmetric today. Below ~1,000 MW, prices have traded negative to near-zero, reflecting surplus hydro and wind generation (233 MW wind, 745 MW hydro at the last interval) relative to load. Once demand pushes past 1,050-1,100 MW, prices jump sharply into the $50-65/MWh band, with GAS_OCGT (125 MW) coming online as the marginal unit. This threshold behaviour — a fast transition from sub-zero to $50+/MWh once hydro and wind are fully absorbed — is the key dynamic traders should watch through the day.
AEMO's forecast trajectory points to further demand-driven volatility. Overnight prices are forecast to ease into single digits ($9-11/MWh) through 01:00-06:00 AEST tomorrow as demand troughs, before a sharp overnight-to-morning ramp: forecast prices jump to $76.70/MWh by 07:00 AEST tomorrow and peak near $81/MWh around 08:30-09:00 AEST, consistent with the morning demand ramp seen today. A second elevated period is forecast around 13:00-13:30 AEST ($71/MWh) before easing to the $30-35/MWh range through the afternoon and evening. Traders should treat the 07:00-09:30 AEST window as the highest-risk period for price spikes, driven by the steep morning demand ramp against a hydro/wind-dominated but gas-supplemented supply stack.
No Tasmania-specific demand-side notices are active today — the market notices on file relate to SA region voltage direction events and Basslink control issues, with no direct TAS1 constraint impacts currently flagged. Carbon intensity in Tasmania remains low at 0.0739 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 88.6%, reflecting the hydro/wind-heavy generation mix currently serving the region's demand.