Commodity Demand — TAS1: Thursday 10 September 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $92.99/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 1,168 MW and climbing through the morning ramp. The region has moved sharply off overnight lows — demand troughed near 810-870 MW between 02:00 and 05:00 AEST, when prices spent extended periods at or below zero, including a low of -$8.44/MWh. That trough-to-current move of roughly 300-350 MW has been the dominant driver of today's price recovery, with the price climbing from single digits to the low-$90s as demand rebuilt through the 06:00-08:00 window.
Price sensitivity to demand in Tasmania is steep once demand pushes past 1,000 MW. Through yesterday's evening peak, demand near 1,220-1,260 MW around 06:30-07:00 AEST (prior day) coincided with prices oscillating between $60/MWh and $95/MWh on tight five-minute swings, indicating the region is operating close to its marginal supply stack in that band. Overnight demand, hydro remains the dominant source at 1,189 MW against wind at 159 MW and gas OCGT at 208 MW, so once hydro and wind are fully committed, gas sets the margin and price volatility increases accordingly.
AEMO's forecast curve points to a firm demand and price build through the morning and into a sustained afternoon peak. Forecast RRP climbs from $85/MWh at 07:30 AEST to $94.52/MWh by 08:00, breaks $100/MWh by 09:00-09:30, and holds in the high-$90s to low-$100s through midday, with a peak near $105.99/MWh forecast for 13:30 AEST. This aligns with cooler conditions today — current temperature is 6.2°C with heating demand at 11.8 (vs near-zero cooling demand) — reinforcing that today's price strength is being driven by winter-pattern heating load rather than any supply-side stress. Prices are expected to ease modestly into the evening, holding around $85/MWh from 15:00 to 17:30 AEST before softening toward $79/MWh by 18:00.
No Tasmania-specific market notices point to demand-side constraints today; the active notices affecting the region relate to historical lightning-driven contingency reclassifications on Tasmanian transmission lines (Gordon-Chapel St, Farrell-Reece, Tungatinah-Waddamana, Norwood-Scottsdale), all since cancelled. Carbon intensity sits at 0.087 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 86.6%, consistent with hydro's continued dominance of the generation mix as demand builds through the day. Load-shifting windows remain most attractive overnight into Saturday, with AEMO's own load-window analysis flagging 02:30-06:30 AEST tomorrow as the lowest-cost period, offering savings of $105-113/MWh versus today's forecast afternoon peak.