Commodity Demand — TAS1: Tuesday 8 September 2026
Tasmania demand sits at 1,157 MW as of 06:30 AEST, climbing sharply through the morning ramp and pushing spot price to $14.50/MWh — though that masks a highly volatile overnight session where prices swung from -$15.01/MWh to $135.93/MWh over the past 12 hours. The region's price sensitivity to demand is pronounced: every 100-150 MW of demand growth through the 06:00-08:30 AEST ramp corresponded to price moves of $50-80/MWh, with the 08:00 AEST interval hitting $135.93/MWh as demand surged to 1,020 MW. This reflects Tasmania's thin generation stack, currently just three units — hydro (595 MW), wind (420 MW) and gas OCGT (124 MW) — leaving limited headroom before the OCGT marginal unit sets price at elevated levels.
Overnight, demand troughed near 845-870 MW between 03:00-04:00 AEST, coinciding with negative and near-zero prices (-$9.98/MWh, $0.04/MWh) as wind generation covered baseload with minimal thermal support needed. The AEMO forecast curve for the remainder of today shows prices easing through the evening: $40.83/MWh by 07:00 AEST reverting to near-zero and negative territory ($-7.65/MWh) by 09:00 AEST as demand tapers, before firming again into tomorrow's morning peak with forecast prices climbing to $67.68/MWh by 19:30 AEST tomorrow. This morning's demand trajectory — still climbing per the current 1,157 MW reading — suggests the immediate risk is further upside in the 09:00-10:00 AEST period if the ramp continues at the current pace.
Weather is a moderating factor today: 4.6°C current temperature with heating demand index at 13.4 signals continued morning load from space heating, but wind potential is weak (0.7, rising only to 5% average today), limiting wind's ability to cap prices the way it did overnight. Solar potential remains negligible at this time of year and hour. Traders should watch the 08:00-09:00 AEST window closely — this is where today's price data shows the sharpest demand-to-price transmission, with $100+/MWh outcomes when demand exceeds 1,100 MW and gas OCGT is required at the margin.
No demand-side AEMO notices are active for Tasmania today — the reserve and intervention notices in the market notice feed relate to SA1 and VIC1 voltage support, not TAS1 demand or capacity constraints. Carbon intensity is currently 0.0709 tCO2/MWh with renewable penetration at 89.09%, tracking the hydro-wind mix; expect this to dip modestly as gas OCGT output increases to meet the morning peak, consistent with the intensity readings above 0.09 tCO2/MWh seen during last night's high-price, high-demand intervals.