Commodity Demand — TAS1: Friday 4 September 2026
Tasmania spot price sits at $0.16/MWh at 06:35 AEST, with demand at 1032 MW — a region firmly in negative-to-flat pricing territory as it works through the tail end of an overnight demand trough. The price signal has been highly volatile relative to demand movement: overnight prices ranged from -$6.85/MWh up to brief spikes near $60/MWh on 5-10 MW demand swings, confirming Tasmania's price curve is steep at current output levels — small shifts in hydro dispatch or interconnector flow are moving price by tens of dollars even though demand itself is barely fluctuating.
Demand has been retreating from yesterday evening's peak of 1307 MW (08:30 AEST 4 September) toward an overnight low near 885 MW around 02:50 AEST, and is now rebuilding through the 1000-1050 MW range as the morning ramp begins. AEMO's forward curve points to a further slide into deeply negative pricing through the day: -$15/MWh to -$27/MWh forecast across the 12:00-13:00 AEST window, with the trough centred near 12:30 AEST at -$27.50/MWh. This reflects continued high hydro and wind output against soft weekend demand, with minimal heating load given today's mild 8-13°C range and heating demand index of just 9.9.
Price recovers only modestly into the afternoon, with forecasts sitting around $23-30/MWh from 13:30 through 17:30 AEST as demand rebuilds toward the evening peak. Yesterday's price pattern is the best guide here — the 1250-1300 MW peak band between 18:30-20:00 AEST saw prices spike to $230/MWh before collapsing back below $100/MWh as hydro ramped to meet the load. Expect a similar profile today: negative-to-flat pricing through the negative-demand trough this afternoon, then a sharp but likely short-lived price lift as evening demand climbs past 1200 MW, contingent on hydro dispatch keeping pace.
On the notices side, there's no active demand-side constraint specific to Tasmania today — the TAS1 lightning-related contingency reclassifications on the Farrell-Reece, Gordon-Chapel St and Norwood-Scottsdale lines from 2-3 September have all been cancelled. The generation mix remains hydro-dominant (379 MW), with wind contributing 163 MW and gas OCGT at 125 MW, holding renewable penetration at 81.2% and carbon intensity at 0.122 tCO2/MWh as of the 20:00 AEST snapshot — consistent with the negative pricing being driven by generation surplus rather than any supply-side constraint.