Commodity Demand — TAS1: Tuesday 1 September 2026
Tasmania spot price sits at $70.08/MWh at 06:30 AEST, tracking the top of a sharp overnight-to-morning climb as demand builds to 1,161 MW — up from a trough of 938 MW around 01:40-01:45 AEST when prices fell to -$58.91/MWh. This overnight period saw persistent negative pricing (-$60 to -$4/MWh) as demand sat below 1,000 MW for roughly six hours, consistent with minimum-load conditions and hydro/wind output exceeding underlying load. The current 1,161 MW reading marks the strongest demand of the last 24 hours, and the price response confirms Tasmania's tight demand-price coupling: every 100-150 MW swing has moved RRP by $20-40/MWh through the morning ramp.
The demand trajectory today follows a classic morning-peak pattern. From the 938 MW overnight low, demand climbed steadily through the 05:00-08:00 AEST window, pushing prices from near-zero into the $35-50/MWh band as load crossed 1,000 MW, then further to $60-90/MWh spikes as demand approached and exceeded 1,100 MW between 07:00 and 08:30 AEST. Isolated spikes to $88.24/MWh at both 22:45 and 10:15 UTC (roughly matching morning and evening peak windows) show the price-setting margin is thin once demand pushes past 1,100 MW, with the market clearing on the steepest part of the supply curve.
AEMO's forecast trajectory for the rest of today points to a second, sharper peak this evening. Forecast RRP builds from $60-70/MWh in the immediate period to $82-91/MWh through the 08:00-10:30 UTC window (18:00-20:30 AEST), before easing back to $60-70/MWh by 12:00 UTC. This evening peak aligns with typical Tasmanian demand behaviour — heating load compounding with the evening ramp, reinforced by today's cool 8.6°C conditions and heating demand index of 9.4. Beyond the evening peak, forecast prices collapse to single digits and turn negative overnight (-$4 to -$7/MWh from 16:00 UTC/02:00 AEST onward), mirroring last night's pattern as demand falls back below 1,000 MW.
Generation is 100% renewable (hydro 1,135 MW, wind 355 MW, zero thermal), so today's price volatility is purely a demand-and-hydro-dispatch story rather than fuel-cost driven — carbon intensity remains at 0 tCO2/MWh throughout. No Tasmania-specific market notices are active; the sole regional item is a historical lightning-related contingency reclassification on the Tungatinah-Waddamana lines, already cancelled. Traders should watch the 1,100-1,150 MW threshold closely — that's where the price curve steepens sharply in both directions, and it's the level AEMO's forecast implies will be breached again this evening.