Commodity Demand — TAS1: Friday 28 August 2026
Tasmania spot price sits at $103.03/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 975 MW, down from the overnight peak of roughly 1,255 MW recorded around 07:45 AEST yesterday evening (settlement times in the data reflect UTC-tagged intervals corresponding to Friday evening peak load in AEST). Price and demand are tightly coupled today: the region touched a low of $4.37/MWh when demand fell to 1,082 MW in the early hours, then climbed sharply once demand pushed back above 1,100 MW, hitting a local high of $126.52/MWh at demand of 1,160 MW around 08:00 AEST. This demand-price elasticity is typical of TAS1's thin-margin dispatch stack, where small MW shifts at the margin move price by tens of dollars.
The demand trajectory today shows a classic morning ramp: overnight trough near 830-870 MW between 12:30-14:30 AEST, rising through the morning to a peak band of 1,150-1,195 MW between roughly 18:30-19:00 AEST, before easing back to the 900-975 MW range into the evening. Forecast RRPs align with this shape — AEMO's forward curve shows prices holding in the $90-125/MWh band through the morning peak window (07:00-09:30 AEST equivalent), before easing to $60-85/MWh through the afternoon and evening as demand tapers. Overnight forecasts show prices falling into negative territory (-$1.62 to -$7.16/MWh) between roughly 10:30 AEST and 15:00 AEST tomorrow, consistent with minimum demand troughs and strong hydro/wind output.
Generation mix is dominated by hydro (1,032 MW) and wind (364 MW), with gas OCGT contributing 125 MW at the margin — this gas call-up during the morning peak likely explains the price spikes above $100/MWh, as OCGT typically sets price at higher demand levels once cheaper hydro and wind are fully committed. Renewable penetration sits at 91.8% with carbon intensity at 0.0534 tCO2/MWh. No TAS1-specific demand-side notices are active today; the only regional contingency events relate to historical lightning reclassifications on the Farrell-Reece and Tungatinah-Waddamana lines, both since cancelled. Traders should watch the 18:00-19:00 AEST window for the next demand peak, where OCGT dispatch and price volatility above $100/MWh are most likely to recur based on today's pattern.