Commodity Demand — TAS1: Wednesday 26 August 2026

Tasmania spot price sits at $258.64/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, tracking the tail of the evening peak with demand at 1305 MW — near the top of today's observed range. Prices have climbed sharply over the past two hours, moving from $116-133/MWh at 18:00-19:00 AEST to above $190/MWh by 19:35, then breaking through $200/MWh as demand pushed past 1290 MW after 20:00. The relationship is clear and consistent through the data set: every time demand crosses roughly 1250 MW, prices jump into the $150-260/MWh band, while demand below 1000 MW (overnight trough around 05:00-06:00 AEST) coincides with prices falling to single digits or turning negative, including a low of -$3.70/MWh at 05:00 AEST.

Demand has been highly cyclical over the past 24 hours, troughing near 738 MW at 05:40 AEST during minimum overnight load, then climbing steadily through the morning ramp to a midday plateau around 1300-1320 MW between 08:30 and 09:30 AEST. A secondary afternoon easing to ~1070-1090 MW held prices in a calmer $106-130/MWh band from 14:00 to 18:00 AEST, before the current evening ramp reasserted upward pressure. Hydro is supplying the bulk of generation at 1478 MW against gas OCGT contribution of 124 MW and wind at just 17 MW, reflecting the low wind potential (1.1) currently on offer — this generation mix is directly enabling the region's 92.3% renewable share and 0.0498 tCO2/MWh carbon intensity even as prices spike, since hydro dispatch is being drawn down to meet peak demand rather than displaced by fossil generation.

AEMO's forecast trajectory points to continued volatility today: the model has prices retreating to $121.50/MWh by 21:30 AEST, then collapsing into single digits overnight (as low as $9.42/MWh at 05:30 AEST tomorrow), consistent with the pattern already observed. A second demand-driven price spike is forecast for tomorrow's morning peak, with forecast RRP climbing back to $184.97/MWh by 09:00 AEST and a further spike to $186.67/MWh around midday — both aligned with expected demand ramps. Traders should note the extreme intraday spread: the $10-20/MWh overnight window offers a 218-220 $/MWh discount versus current peak pricing, though AEMO's load-shifting flags mark the 01:00-02:00 AEST window as high risk despite the favourable price, warranting caution on timing-sensitive load decisions. No Tasmania-specific demand constraints or non-conformance notices are currently active; the only regional notice of note is the now-cancelled contingency reclassification on the Farrell-Reece and Tungatinah lines from the prior week.