Commodity Demand — TAS1: Thursday 27 August 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $88.19/MWh at 6:30am AEST with demand climbing to 1,195 MW, up sharply from the overnight trough of 950-980 MW recorded between 2am and 5am, when prices fell as low as -$1.24/MWh. The region is now in the steep morning ramp, with demand rising roughly 220 MW in the past hour as the market moves through the typical weekday build. Generation is being met almost entirely by hydro (1,172 MW) and wind (262 MW), with 124 MW of gas OCGT filling the gap, holding the carbon intensity at 0.052 tCO2/MWh and renewable penetration at 92%.
Tasmania's price-demand relationship is highly elastic through the ramp. Overnight, every 50 MW of demand decline dragged price down 10-30 $/MWh as hydro dispatch tracked load closely; between 4:20am and 5:15am demand near 950-980 MW produced negative and near-zero prices. Conversely, as demand climbed through 1,050-1,250 MW between 6:40am and 9:00am yesterday's equivalent window, prices spiked to a 130-160 $/MWh band, and the overnight peak near 1,420 MW on 26 August pushed prices as high as $269/MWh. This confirms Tasmania's price curve steepens materially above roughly 1,150-1,200 MW, a level current demand has just crossed.
AEMO's 5-minute forecast points to prices easing over the next few hours as demand growth flattens, dropping to $81/MWh by 9:30am and $69/MWh by 10:00am, before falling further into the low $20-30/MWh band overnight as demand recedes. The forecast curve then shows a second ramp tomorrow morning, with prices climbing from $11/MWh at 4pm today (overnight low point) to $80-126/MWh through the 7am-10am window on 28 August, consistent with the typical two-peak daily shape. Afternoon demand today is expected to soften further, with forecast prices sitting in the $88-126/MWh range from midday through early evening before easing again after 6pm.
No Tasmania-specific demand-side notices are active today; the only regional flag is a historical TAS1 lightning-related contingency reclassification on transmission lines near Waddamana and Farrell-Reece, both since cancelled with no ongoing constraint impact. Cold morning conditions (7.2°C, heating demand index 10.8) are consistent with the observed demand ramp, and forecast minimum temperatures near 7-8°C over the next two days suggest similar morning peak behaviour into the weekend. Traders should note the identified low-price windows overnight (1am-6:30am, average $18-27/MWh) as the most attractive load-shifting opportunities, offering $104-114/MWh savings versus today's peak pricing.