Commodity Demand — TAS1: Sunday 23 August 2026
Tasmania's spot price sits at $48.10/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 1169 MW, tracking through the tail end of the overnight-to-morning ramp. Demand has climbed roughly 210 MW from its overnight trough of 960 MW (around 03:00-04:00 AEST) as the morning ramp builds, and price has responded in kind — overnight demand below 1000 MW produced sustained negative and near-zero pricing (-$5.90/MWh through several intervals around 01:00-02:30 AEST), while the current ramp above 1100 MW has pushed price back into positive territory.
The clearest demand-price relationship shows up in the morning peak: demand rose from 1130 MW to a daily high of 1362 MW between 06:25 and 08:10 AEST, and price jumped in step, spiking from $41.75/MWh to a peak of $86.13/MWh over the same window. That's roughly a 20% demand increase driving a 100%+ price increase, indicating the region is operating near the steeper part of its supply curve during the morning shoulder. Price and demand have since eased in tandem through the middle of the day, with demand declining to the 1000-1100 MW band by mid-afternoon and price settling into the $23-45/MWh range.
Looking ahead, AEMO's forecast points to a second, sharper price spike later this morning: forecast RRP climbs to $85.73/MWh by 07:30 AEST and peaks at $102.07/MWh around 09:30 AEST, consistent with today's demand trajectory continuing to build through the standard morning peak. Forecast prices then ease steadily across the day, dropping to the $20-35/MWh range from midday through the evening as demand moderates. Traders should note the morning window (07:00-10:00 AEST) as the key price-risk period today, with demand likely holding above 1300 MW.
On the supply side, hydro (597 MW) and wind (352 MW) are covering the full 950 MW generation mix with zero gas dispatch, and carbon intensity has read 0 tCO2/MWh with 100% renewable supply for essentially the entire past 24 hours. This full-renewable supply position means today's price volatility is being driven almost entirely by hydro/wind dispatch economics and interconnector flows rather than fuel-cost pass-through — worth noting given the active credible-contingency reclassifications on the Farrell-Reece and Tungatinah-Waddamana lines earlier this week, which have since reverted to non-credible status. No new Tasmania-specific market interventions are in force, though SA voltage-control directions remain active and could indirectly affect Basslink flows if intervention persists.