Commodity Demand — TAS1: Friday 21 August 2026
Tasmania spot price sits at $41.37/MWh at 06:25 AEST with demand at 1021 MW, tracking mid-range after overnight demand troughed near 838 MW at 15:40 (23:40 AEST 20 Aug) and peaked around 1264 MW near 21:35 (05:35 AEST). The region is running on 100% renewables — 523 MW wind and 395 MW hydro, zero gas-fired generation — meaning current price movements reflect hydro/wind dispatch bidding and interconnector flows rather than thermal fuel costs.
Price sensitivity to demand in TAS1 is pronounced but not perfectly linear. Overnight troughs below 850 MW coincided with prices collapsing to single digits ($3.52–$6.72/MWh) between 15:40–16:00 AEST, while the demand ramp toward 1150–1265 MW through the evening peak drove prices up to $54–90/MWh, including a $90.42/MWh spike at 06:05 AEST on 21 Aug. Each ~100 MW swing in demand is producing $15–25/MWh price movement in this band, indicating a fairly steep short-run supply curve once hydro dispatch tightens above 1100 MW.
The forecast trajectory points to a soft demand day: AEMO's price curve shows a sharp overnight trough with forecast RRP dropping to $2.75–9/MWh between 12:00–14:30 AEST (early hours 22 Aug), consistent with low heating demand overnight and continued high wind output. Prices then recover through the morning ramp, holding near $45.18–45.20/MWh from roughly 17:00 through midday as demand rebuilds, before a modest afternoon step-up to $43–45/MWh into the evening. This is a comparatively flat, low-volatility profile versus yesterday's evening spike pattern, and load-shifting windows between 09:00–14:00 AEST (avg $4–9/MWh) offer the best demand-response opportunity today with $36–41/MWh savings versus peak.
Two active network notices warrant attention for price risk: the Tungatinah-Lake Echo-Waddamana and Tungatinah-Waddamana 110kV lines were reclassified as a credible contingency at 05:23 AEST due to lightning, and remain active. This constrains hydro dispatch flexibility from the Tungatinah/Waddamana scheme and could tighten local supply if demand tracks above forecast, adding upside price risk beyond the benign outlook currently priced in. Weather today (7-12°C, 50% cloud cover, wind potential 8.3) supports continued strong wind contribution, which should keep any demand-driven price spikes contained relative to yesterday's peak.