Commodity Demand — TAS1: Wednesday 19 August 2026
Tasmania spot price sits at $75.73/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, tracking a demand build to 1165 MW during the morning ramp. This follows a sharp overnight decline where demand fell to a low of 952 MW around 13:45 AEST yesterday (03:45 UTC) alongside negative pricing (-$5.92/MWh in several intervals), confirming Tasmania's demand-price relationship remains tight through low-load periods when hydro and wind output exceeds local consumption.
The demand trajectory today shows the classic Tasmanian shape: an early-morning ramp from the ~950-1050 MW overnight trough toward a morning peak. Yesterday's equivalent period saw demand climb from 1120 MW to over 1330 MW between 04:00 and 08:00 AEST, with prices simultaneously rising from single digits to a peak of $82.58/MWh and multiple prints above $60/MWh. Current price action is replicating this pattern, with the 06:30 interval at $78.61/MWh and 07:00 at $73.65/MWh confirming demand-driven tightness as load climbs past 1250 MW.
AEMO's forecast trajectory for the coming hours points to further upside: forecast RRP climbs to $88.24/MWh across several 23:00-04:00 UTC intervals (09:00-14:00 AEST), consistent with continued morning and midday demand strength before easing into the afternoon. The forecast curve shows prices retreating to the $25-40/MWh range by mid-afternoon (14:00-18:00 UTC / 00:00-04:00 AEST tomorrow) as demand tapers, mirroring yesterday's pattern where afternoon demand fell to below 940 MW with prices compressing to $40-55/MWh. Traders should note the extreme volatility band today — forecast prices swing from $88.24/MWh to as low as $11.05/MWh within a 12-hour window, reflecting Tasmania's price sensitivity to relatively modest demand shifts of 150-300 MW given the region's hydro-dominant, price-taking generation stack (867.6 MW hydro, 358.95 MW wind, 124.02 MW gas OCGT currently online).
No demand-side notices specific to Tasmania are active today; market notices instead concern VIC1 contingency reclassification and Basslink transfer limitations, the latter relevant given Basslink's role in arbitraging Tasmanian hydro output against mainland demand. Cool conditions (8.8°C, heating demand index 9.2) support steady residential load through the morning peak, with today's mild max of 17.6°C and thin solar potential (11.3%) limiting any midday demand suppression from behind-the-meter generation.