Commodity Demand — TAS1: Saturday 22 August 2026

Tasmania spot price sits at $102.93/MWh at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 1,138 MW and climbing through the evening peak. This continues a day defined by extreme demand-price sensitivity: overnight troughs near 750-900 MW produced negative and near-zero pricing (as low as -$7.90/MWh around 03:35-03:50 AEST), while the morning ramp from 850 MW to over 1,200 MW between 05:00 and 08:00 AEST drove prices from single digits to a peak of $152.34/MWh at 08:00 AEST. The pattern confirms Tasmania's price curve is steep once demand pushes past roughly 1,150 MW, with the hydro-dominant stack requiring higher-cost dispatch to meet the margin.

Demand has tracked a classic two-peak shape today: a morning peak around 1,235-1,252 MW between 08:10 and 08:55 AEST (prices holding $85-110/MWh), a midday plateau near 1,050-1,130 MW with prices consistently in the $95-115/MWh band, and now a second evening climb toward 1,100-1,140 MW that's pushing prices back above $100/MWh. The generation mix remains hydro-heavy at 1,251 MW against wind at 241 MW and a small 40 MW gas OCGT contribution, keeping carbon intensity at just 0.017 tCO2/MWh and renewable penetration at 97.4% — the price volatility here is a hydro dispatch and marginal-cost story, not a fuel-mix emissions story.

AEMO's forecast trajectory points to prices easing from current levels: $91.94/MWh by 21:00 AEST, dropping to $75/MWh by 22:00 AEST, then falling through the $40s and into single digits overnight as demand recedes below 900 MW. The forecast anticipates a full repeat of last night's pattern — prices near zero or negative between 04:30 and 06:00 AEST tomorrow, before the next morning ramp lifts prices back to $75-89/MWh by 08:30-09:30 AEST. No Tasmania-specific demand-side notices are in effect today; the active market interventions relate to SA region voltage support and don't affect TAS1 dispatch. The lightning-related credible contingency reclassifications on the Tungatinah-Waddamana and Farrell-Reece lines earlier this week have both been cancelled, removing those constraint risks from today's network conditions.

For traders, the actionable window is the current evening peak (19:00-21:00 AEST) where prices are holding $85-110/MWh on demand above 1,080 MW — this typically compresses quickly once demand drops post-21:00 AEST, consistent with the forecast's rapid fall to $75/MWh by 22:00 AEST and single digits by midnight.