Commodity Demand — TAS1: Thursday 20 August 2026

Tasmania spot price sits at $39.03/MWh at 6:30am AEST with demand at 1,142 MW, mid-range for the overnight-to-morning ramp. Demand has been climbing steadily from an overnight low of 918 MW (around 1:20pm AEST yesterday in trough conditions) toward this morning's build, tracking the typical weekday ramp as heating load kicks in with the current temperature at 5.8°C and heating demand index at 12.2.

Price sensitivity to demand in TAS1 is pronounced above the 1,250 MW mark. Through yesterday evening's peak, demand climbed from 1,150 MW to a high of 1,308 MW (8:30pm AEST), and price responded sharply — spiking from the $70-90/MWh band into a $267-374/MWh cluster once demand crossed roughly 1,270 MW between 9:00pm and 9:45pm AEST. This confirms a steep supply curve kink in the 1,250-1,300 MW range, likely tied to Basslink flow limits given the active technical limitation noted on the interconnector (constraint I-VT_000, invoked 7:00am 18 August). Once demand eased back below 1,150 MW after 11pm, prices collapsed to the $15-40/MWh range and stayed there through the overnight trough.

For today, AEMO's forecast trajectory points to renewed volatility around the evening peak. Forecast prices hold in the $46-88/MWh band through the morning and midday (targeting 7am-2am AEST), but show two sharp spikes to $88.24/MWh flagged for 8am AEST and again clustered around 10am-11am AEST, consistent with demand pushing back toward the 1,250-1,300 MW zone that triggered last night's price excursions. A further $87.24/MWh cluster is forecast for the 12:30pm-2am window in isolated intervals, suggesting the forecast model is pricing in intermittent tightness rather than a sustained peak. Later afternoon and evening forecasts ease materially, with prices falling below $30/MWh from 3pm AEST and into single digits by early evening, mirroring yesterday's demand-driven pattern where load eased back under 1,000 MW.

Generation mix remains hydro-dominant at 1,186 MW alongside 302 MW wind, with zero gas-fired OCGT output and 100% renewable supply at the last carbon interval. With Basslink under a technical transfer constraint, Tasmania's price outcomes today are likely to stay tightly coupled to in-region hydro dispatch decisions and wind output — any unplanned drop in wind (currently modest at 1.6% potential) during the 1,250+ MW demand window would add further upside price risk beyond the forecast $88/MWh peaks.