Commodity Demand — TAS1: Tuesday 25 August 2026

Tasmania spot price sits at $99.77/MWh at 06:30 AEST with demand at 1,205 MW, tracking the tail end of the morning ramp. Demand has climbed from an overnight low near 1,015-1,030 MW (03:00-03:30 AEST window) to current levels as the region moves through its typical weekday morning build. Hydro is carrying 1,182 MW of generation, wind is contributing 212 MW, and gas OCGT sits at 125 MW providing peaking support — renewable penetration reads 91.8% with carbon intensity at 0.053 tCO2/MWh.

Price sensitivity to demand in TAS1 is pronounced above the 1,250 MW mark. Yesterday's trading pattern shows this clearly: prices held in the $88-90/MWh band through most of the evening peak up to ~1,300 MW, but once demand pushed past 1,300 MW into the 1,340-1,350 MW range around 18:00-18:30 AEDT-equivalent, prices spiked to $137-146/MWh as OCGT units set the marginal price. The inverse held through the afternoon trough — as demand fell to 970-1,050 MW between 13:00 and 16:00, prices dropped into the $35-70/MWh range, with hydro comfortably meeting load without needing gas support.

Today's forecast trajectory points to a sharp price escalation from mid-morning. AEMO's forward curve shows prices holding near $61-120/MWh through the next few hours before collapsing to single digits and teens overnight (as low as $10.99/MWh at 16:00 AEST per the forecast), reflecting the low overnight demand trough. But the standout feature is the forecast price surge from 18:00 AEST onward: prices are forecast to jump to $152.75/MWh by 18:00, then hold in the $228-319/MWh range from 19:00 through 22:00 AEST, peaking at $318.86/MWh around 22:30 AEST. This coincides with the expected afternoon/evening demand peak, likely pushing total demand well above the 1,300 MW threshold where gas OCGT dispatch becomes necessary and sets a materially higher marginal price.

For trading and demand-side response, the load-shifting windows are concentrated overnight and early morning (01:00-06:30 AEST), where forecast prices sit between $11-36/MWh — a spread exceeding $280/MWh versus the forecast afternoon peak. Flexible load should be scheduled into these windows ahead of the steep afternoon ramp. No active TAS1-specific demand constraints are in the notices; the most relevant Tasmania item remains the now-cancelled lightning-related contingency reclassification on the Farrell-Reece and Tungatinah-Waddamana lines from 21-22 August, which is no longer in effect.