Commodity Demand — TAS1: Sunday 30 August 2026
Tasmania demand sits at 1166 MW as of 06:30 AEST, up sharply from the overnight trough near 780-800 MW and tracking into the winter morning peak. Spot price is $86.65/MWh, having climbed from single digits and even negative territory (-$20.99/MWh at 04:05 AEST) as demand built through the early hours. The overnight period shows textbook demand-price sensitivity: as load fell below 800 MW between 01:00-05:00 AEST, prices spent extended periods negative, bottoming at -$20.99/MWh, before rebounding above $80/MWh once demand crossed the 950-1000 MW mark around 07:00 AEST.
The price response to demand growth this morning has been non-linear and steep. Between 06:25 and 08:00 AEST, demand rose from 958 MW to over 1149 MW (a 20% increase) while prices spiked from $17.06/MWh to a peak of $101.04/MWh — a more than five-fold increase, indicating the region is moving up a steep section of the supply curve as marginal plant is dispatched. Demand peaked intraday near 1166 MW at the current interval, with prices holding in the mid-$80s to low-$100s/MWh range through the 07:00-09:00 AEST window.
AEMO's forecast trajectory points to a stronger demand-driven price event later in the day: forecast RRP climbs to $130.71/MWh by 08:00 AEST tomorrow-equivalent timing and peaks near $131.88/MWh around 10:00 AEST, before easing through the afternoon as demand tapers — forecast prices fall to $25/MWh by 14:30-16:00 AEST and further to $11-15/MWh into the evening. This mirrors yesterday's pattern where demand and price both peaked in the morning band (1100-1160 MW, $85-120/MWh) then eased through midday and afternoon as demand dropped to the 930-950 MW range, with prices settling near $80-90/MWh. Traders should note the extreme volatility within 5-minute dispatch intervals even at similar demand levels (e.g., $110.90/MWh followed by $85.86/MWh at near-identical demand around 15:05-15:15 AEST yesterday), reflecting tight marginal generation stacks rather than pure demand-driven moves.
No demand-side constraints or directions are currently active in Tasmania. The active market notices concern SA region voltage support and minimum system load conditions, plus a scheduled MarketNet VPN maintenance window on 3 September — none of which affect TAS1 dispatch today. With hydro contributing 1129 MW (91.6% renewable share) and gas OCGT at 124 MW covering peak demand, Tasmania's price volatility this morning is being driven by the marginal cost of dispatching that gas capacity as demand climbs past the 1000 MW threshold, not by any supply shortfall.