Commodity Demand — TAS1: Monday 7 September 2026
Tasmania spot price sits at $73.10/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, with demand climbing to 1,182 MW, up from a 06:15 low near 843 MW recorded around 12:45am. The overnight trough saw prices collapse into negative territory (-$15.01/MWh at 08:45am AEST equivalent, and a run of sub-zero and near-zero prints from roughly 8:40pm through 5:00am) as demand fell below 900 MW, well under minimum operational thresholds. That inverse relationship is stark: every 100 MW of demand decline through the trough compressed prices by roughly $20-40/MWh, with the market briefly clearing at negative prices once demand dropped under 950 MW.
The morning ramp is the defining feature of today's price action. As demand climbed from ~900 MW at 5:00am AEST to over 1,240 MW by 8:40am, prices surged from single digits to a peak of $141.14/MWh at 08:35am — a more than tenfold increase on roughly 35% demand growth. This is a textbook steep-ramp response: Tasmania's price curve shows strong convexity above 1,150-1,200 MW, where each additional 50 MW of demand is adding $10-20/MWh to clearing price. Demand has held in the 1,150-1,245 MW band through the middle of the day, keeping prices elevated in the $85-135/MWh range, before easing back to the $60-90/MWh band as demand eased toward 960-1,000 MW mid-afternoon.
Demand is now building again into the evening peak, up from 970 MW at 6:00pm to 1,182 MW at 6:30pm AEST, and AEMO's forecast has price tracking this trajectory: $83.22/MWh forecast for 8:30pm, easing to $50.08/MWh by 9:00pm and falling through the $10-40/MWh band overnight as demand subsides again. The forecast curve then shows a repeat of today's pattern tomorrow — prices diving toward zero and negative territory between 1:00am and 6:00am AEST 8 September as demand troughs, before another sharp ramp to $89-106/MWh forecast between 7:30am and 10:30am as morning demand returns above 1,150 MW. gridIQ's load-shifting windows flag five low-price blocks overnight (12:00am-6:30am AEST), each offering $93-106/MWh in savings versus peak, consistent with the demand-driven price troughs observed today.
No demand-side constraints or reserve notices are currently active for Tasmania; the only regional notice concerns cancelled lightning-related contingency reclassifications on the Gordon-Chapel St and Farrell-Reece lines from 5 September, now resolved. Generation mix at 8:30pm shows hydro carrying 1,146 MW of the 1,536 MW total, with wind at 182 MW and gas OCGT at 208 MW covering the demand ramp — renewable penetration sits at 86.5%, tracking closely with the overnight low-price periods where renewable share peaked near 91-92%.