Commodity Demand — TAS1: Wednesday 9 September 2026
Tasmania spot price sits at $94.72/MWh as at 06:30 AEST, with demand at 1,210 MW and climbing through the morning ramp. This follows an extreme overnight trough where demand fell to below 900 MW between 01:00-05:00 AEST, driving prices deeply negative (-$15 to -$17/MWh for extended periods) as low-cost hydro generation outstripped minimum demand. The swing from sub-900 MW overnight to over 1,200 MW now illustrates Tasmania's pronounced price sensitivity to demand shifts in this range — a roughly 300 MW increase has moved prices from negative territory to near $95/MWh in the space of four hours.
The overnight data shows just how compressed Tasmania's price-demand relationship is at low load: demand under 950 MW consistently produced prices between -$8 and -$17/MWh, while the ramp above 1,050 MW from 06:30 AEST saw prices spike briefly to $320.36/MWh at 07:55 AEST as demand crossed 1,258 MW. Demand has continued climbing through the morning, peaking near 1,309 MW around 09:10-09:20 AEST with prices holding in the $78-85/MWh range — a more orderly relationship than the volatile 07:00-08:00 AEST window, suggesting the market found adequate dispatchable capacity once hydro and gas peaking units ramped in.
Looking at today's forecast trajectory, AEMO's price curve points to renewed volatility this evening, with forecast prices climbing to $114.57/MWh around 21:30 AEST before easing into a low overnight trough again (forecast prices near $0.74/MWh by 01:00 AEST, dropping to -$8.41/MWh by 03:00 AEST tomorrow). A brief forecast spike to $35.20/MWh at 04:30 AEST tomorrow stands out against the surrounding negative pricing, indicating a short-lived demand or ramp constraint. Tomorrow's morning ramp is forecast to push prices materially higher, with the 08:00-11:30 AEST window forecast in the $89-104/MWh range, consistent with today's pattern of demand crossing the 1,200-1,300 MW threshold.
Demand-side risk factors are currently concentrated in South Australia rather than Tasmania directly — active AEMO interventions and a foreseeable voltage-related intervention from 10:00 AEST today in SA could influence interconnector flows via Basslink, though no direct Tasmanian constraints are currently active. Hydro generation (1,161 MW) continues to dominate the mix, supplemented by wind (204 MW) and gas OCGT (157 MW), with renewable penetration at 89.67% and carbon intensity at a low 0.0672 tCO2/MWh. Given today's clear, low-cloud outlook (16% cloud cover, min 7.3°C) and evening demand build typical of early spring mornings and evenings, expect the pattern of sharp overnight troughs and morning/evening price peaks to persist through the trading day.